This paper analyses the spatial patterns of internal migration in Russia using data on net migration gain/loss in 2200 municipal formations (MFs) in Russia for the 2012–2013 period. These MFs are grouped into age categories that correspond with different life-course stages. We define 16 classes of MFs with similar migration balance patterns for multiple age groups and characterize the most typical classes. The results of our analysis show that age-specific migration patterns are determined by the spatial characteristics of MFs—in particular, a municipality’s localization in the centreperiphery system and the advantages of the geographic location (e.g., resort area, natural resources). We find that a city’s population size and administrative status are also important migration factors. In addition, we reveal differences in inter-regional and intra-regional migration and define their structural characteristics. An analysis of age-specific net migration contributes to our understanding of internal migration factors and allows us to assess the impact of migration on a municipality’s age structure. In large cities and regional centres, migration results in younger populations, while in peripheral areas, it speeds up population ageing. In most of the MFs that we analysed, the migration of youth and adults ‘moves’ in opposite directions. This factor accelerates the impact of migration on the population age structure in areas of destination and origin and significantly influences a municipality’s current and prospective demographic parameters as well as the population’s patterns of settlement and spatial concentration or de-concentration both nationally and regionally.
This paper identifies education, skills training and improved social infrastructure as key development issues to address population decline in regions of steady out-migration from the Russian Arctic. Migration flows are mostly stabilized after the sharp and unexpectedly large population decline in the Arctic in the 1990s, during the transition to a market economy. However, the trends set in motion during that collapse, including falling general levels of education, declining size of all but the largest cities, and aging of the populace, are deepening in consequence for some regions, even where government resettlement programs exist. As young professionals continue to leave, resettling com-patriates and hiring shift labour may contribute to the vitality of more resilient regions, for example, Krasnoyarsk and Yamalo-Nenets. However, the European part of the Russian Arctic, despite its critical importance to commerce and to military security, and despite assistance programs and subsidies, is conforming more to the aging, less productive contours of neighbouring Artic states on the periphery of Europe.
The paper concerns changes in air transport connectivity of Russia’s territory for the period of 1990–2015 by aggregating of adjacent airports and air hubs in 20 air clusters. The dynamics of air passenger traffic between large cities is considered as an indicator of changes in the territorial structure of the economy and population distribution in the country. Analysis has shown that disintegration of a complex, polycentric, and well-developed system of neighboring air links has taken place in post-Soviet Russia. Structure of this system has become much simpler, with pronounced overcentralization of Moscow (instead of the previous centralization) and reduction of the power of attraction of second- and third-order interregional centers. Divisional fragmentation and shrinkage of the socioeconomic space in not only the Asian but also the European part of the country have occurred. Current Russian airline system is characterized by weak neighborhood connectivity. A slow disintegration process between the western and eastern parts of the country is going.
The article deals with regional diagnostics as a method for studying the socio-economic space of Russia, the quality of the economic space and its regional differences, methods and tools for the sustainable development of regions.
In this study, we analyzed the data about the technological diversification of export composition of upper middle-income countries and the impact of the technological composition of exported goods on GDP growth. Using the dynamic panel data analysis techniques for 34 countries between 1995-2015, we confirmed that exports of high technological products will have a significant positive impact on economic growth for upper middle-income countries as well as medium technological products’ exports which have a limited effect. The exports of low-tech products will have a negative effect for economic growth in the long run.
European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substantial and, in some cases, is bigger than the effect of changes in productivity and labour force participation. Convergence of ageing leads to economic convergence only when the share of the working age population in rich regions exceeds that in poor regions and the former regions experience a substantial decline in the share of the working age population, or the latter regions experience an increase. During 2003–12, an inverse relationship between convergence in ageing and economic convergence was the rule rather than the exception.
Importance Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.
Objective To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.
Design, Setting, and Participants This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.
Exposures Firearm ownership and access.
Main Outcomes and Measures Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.
Results Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (−0.2% [95% UI, −0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35).
Conclusions and Relevance This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
The planning profession has been advocated as an untapped resource for obesity prevention, but little is known about how planners view their roles and responsibilities in this area. This paper investigates the role of planners in the Healthy Towns programme in England, and explores the limits and potential for obesity prevention within planning policy and practice. Using a qualitative approach, 23 planning stakeholders were interviewed, identifying the potential for planning in public health, particularly the ‘health proofing’ of local planning policy. National and local governments should better align planning and health policies to support collaboration between planners and public health practitioners.
Reviews of mixed tenure research have highlighted the lack of attention given to the processes of delivering mix. This research investigates the relationship between the spatial configuration of tenures produced within neighbourhoods, and residents’ views on the benefits and drawbacks of mixed tenure and their reported social interactions within and across tenures. Further, we consider how these effects are bound up with the particular contexts and development histories, or ‘modes of production’, of mixed tenure estates. Two peripheral estates and one inner city estate converted to mixed tenure over the past 10–20 years in Glasgow were examined through qualitative research with 37 residents in 7 neighbourhoods. The majority of respondents were positive about mixed tenure, though owners were more likely to qualify their support. Residents living in spatially integrated neighbourhoods were the most positive overall, and those in segregated neighbourhoods the least so. More positive views and accounts of mixed tenure were also most common on the estate which had been entirely redeveloped through a master-planning process.
From the raw diamonds of the eighteenth century, it has been turned into today. Yet, even now, the indigenous India, largely hidden away from public vision. This is a picture of the realm of the Gonds, where it can be seen. It has been shaped by the local miners in Panna and is shaped by The miners dig, the miners dig, savoir vivre . They remain dynamic, and success. It is clear that they can bind themselves to the miner's life. This is a protagonist story that has been spelled out. Based on the ethnographic fieldwork in Pannah, Madhya Pradesh State University of Central Asia
We document the geographic concentration patterns of Russian manufacturing using detailed microgeographic data. About 80% of three‐digit industries are significantly agglomerated, and a similar share of three‐digit industry pairs is significantly coagglomerated. Industry pairs with stronger buyer–supplier links—as measured using Russian input–output tables—tend to be slightly more coagglomerated. This result is robust to instrumental variable estimation using either Canadian or US instruments. Using Canadian ad valorem transport costs as a proxy for transport costs in Russia, we further find that industries with higher transport costs are more dispersed, and industry pairs with higher transport costs are less coagglomerated.
Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.
We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.
The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.
The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
This article examines mixed tenure as a policy orthodoxy. It first sets out how mixed tenure may be considered to constitute an orthodoxy within planning, being generally accepted as a theory and practice even in the absence of supporting evidence. Five elements of this orthodoxy are identified, relating to (1) housing and the environment, (2) social change, (3) economic impacts, (4) sustainable communities, (5) and sociospatial integration. Interviews with practitioners involved with three social housing estates that have experienced mixed-tenure policy interventions are reported to consider why the implementation and effects of mixed tenure might not correspond with the orthodox understanding. It is argued that policy ambiguity and weaknesses in policy theory and specification, alongside practical constraints, lie behind incomplete and counter-productive policy implementation, but a belief in pursuing the policy orthodoxy persists nevertheless.
Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.
We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.
Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89–4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61–2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18–5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10–4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8–8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4–8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1–10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184–5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461–524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74–89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38–43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3–0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0–16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6–11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8–23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68–2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6–0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9–136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7–138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.
Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets
This paper demonstrates opportunities for the development of the place marketing theory given by pure model of local expenditures (Tiebout 1956) and concepts of the creative class (Florida 2004) and creative city (Bianchini and Landry 1995). Rethinking them in marketing terms, we then analyze their limitations and show why their re-examining can support competition analysis, targeting, and marketing policy of places. In the discussion section, main directions of theoretical research in place marketing are highlighted.
Purpose – This articlepresents concepts and tools for developing place branding that protects places from overbranding, redundant promotion, and excessive tourism.
Methodology – The concept of a product-based place brand that reflects local ways of life and local identities was introduced was introduced. A combination of projective and typological methods was applied. Three focus groups composed of future place managers were held in three countries (N= 27) to develop place brand vocabularies − typologies of verbal characteristics of abstract places as products for internal users (residents).
Findings – In most cases, the place brand vocabularies were consistent and compatible within each abstract type and were unique (mutually exclusive) between the types. The vocabularies contained both detailed and more generalized elements. For each abstract place, short formulations of the general concept were found. Each brand vocabulary reflected the institutional, socio-psychological, cultural, historical, and geographic differences of the countries involved in the research.
Originality/value –A conceptual and methodological framework for creating place brand vocabularies is offered and it provides (1) close relationship between multiple brand attributes and their laconic expressions appropriate for communication and (2) high differentiation among brand attributes facilitates the recognition of branded places by target and non-target audiences. The framework is applicable for designing verbal attributes of place brands for specific places to avoid overbranding effects.
The paper studies population dynamics of 75 regional centers and secondary cities in the Russia’s regions. The information base for the analysis was population census data from 1959 to 2010 and the current population accounting for 2011–2017. In the vast majority of regions, the center dominates over the secondary city significantly. This manifests itself both in the absolute parameters of the population and in the share of centers and secondary cities in the populations of their regions. In 31 Russian regions, the share of the center by 2002 had already reached 35% and continued to grow. After 15 years, it exceeded 45% in 13 regions. The upper limit of the possible population concentration in the regional center has not yet been revealed. Over time, the prevalence of centers over secondary cities has been increasing. The analysis showed that the possibilities of population increase in secondary cities depend on the size of said population: among secondary cities with a population greater than 250 000, they continue to increase; among secondary small cities, the share between depopulating and growing cities hardly changes at all. Thus, trends towards centrism in the regions prevail over polycentricity. The population is increasingly concentrated at separate points, vested with power. These processes are based on historical and evolutionary (history of settlement, development, and urbanization), functional–economic, administrative-territorial, and demographic determinants. Recently, an increasingly important factor contributing to population concentration is the institutional factor (associated with the execution of capital functions by regional centers and reducing the costs of business and consumers).
A comparison of Arctic cities in Russia with their counterparts in the southern parts of the country suggests that there are no significant differences in the degree of employment specialization or in many indicators of social amenities and services. The most important distinguishing feature of Arctic cities in Russia is the high mobility of their populations and the relative ease with which they move. The mobility of the Arctic population should be recognized as a kind of safety valve for the Arctic cities, underpinning their resilience in the face of changes in economic conditions.