This paper analyses the spatial patterns of internal migration in Russia using data on net migration gain/loss in 2200 municipal formations (MFs) in Russia for the 2012–2013 period. These MFs are grouped into age categories that correspond with different life-course stages. We define 16 classes of MFs with similar migration balance patterns for multiple age groups and characterize the most typical classes. The results of our analysis show that age-specific migration patterns are determined by the spatial characteristics of MFs—in particular, a municipality’s localization in the centreperiphery system and the advantages of the geographic location (e.g., resort area, natural resources). We find that a city’s population size and administrative status are also important migration factors. In addition, we reveal differences in inter-regional and intra-regional migration and define their structural characteristics. An analysis of age-specific net migration contributes to our understanding of internal migration factors and allows us to assess the impact of migration on a municipality’s age structure. In large cities and regional centres, migration results in younger populations, while in peripheral areas, it speeds up population ageing. In most of the MFs that we analysed, the migration of youth and adults ‘moves’ in opposite directions. This factor accelerates the impact of migration on the population age structure in areas of destination and origin and significantly influences a municipality’s current and prospective demographic parameters as well as the population’s patterns of settlement and spatial concentration or de-concentration both nationally and regionally.
This paper identifies education, skills training and improved social infrastructure as key development issues to address population decline in regions of steady out-migration from the Russian Arctic. Migration flows are mostly stabilized after the sharp and unexpectedly large population decline in the Arctic in the 1990s, during the transition to a market economy. However, the trends set in motion during that collapse, including falling general levels of education, declining size of all but the largest cities, and aging of the populace, are deepening in consequence for some regions, even where government resettlement programs exist. As young professionals continue to leave, resettling com-patriates and hiring shift labour may contribute to the vitality of more resilient regions, for example, Krasnoyarsk and Yamalo-Nenets. However, the European part of the Russian Arctic, despite its critical importance to commerce and to military security, and despite assistance programs and subsidies, is conforming more to the aging, less productive contours of neighbouring Artic states on the periphery of Europe.
The paper shows relationships between characteristics of residents and places where they live. A combination of three criteria of place attractiveness (retention and attraction, conditions for natural growth, and settling) was chosen to classify places, and profiles of their beneficiaries on the theoretical level.
The results of the empirical study partially confirm developed theoretical typologies. Two methods to segment place market are equal only if expectations of population are constant. Study results allow place marketers to identify emerging shifts in the structure of beneficiaries of specific places and predict their further evolution.
The paper concerns changes in air transport connectivity of Russia’s territory for the period of 1990–2015 by aggregating of adjacent airports and air hubs in 20 air clusters. The dynamics of air passenger traffic between large cities is considered as an indicator of changes in the territorial structure of the economy and population distribution in the country. Analysis has shown that disintegration of a complex, polycentric, and well-developed system of neighboring air links has taken place in post-Soviet Russia. Structure of this system has become much simpler, with pronounced overcentralization of Moscow (instead of the previous centralization) and reduction of the power of attraction of second- and third-order interregional centers. Divisional fragmentation and shrinkage of the socioeconomic space in not only the Asian but also the European part of the country have occurred. Current Russian airline system is characterized by weak neighborhood connectivity. A slow disintegration process between the western and eastern parts of the country is going.
The article deals with regional diagnostics as a method for studying the socio-economic space of Russia, the quality of the economic space and its regional differences, methods and tools for the sustainable development of regions.
In this study, we analyzed the data about the technological diversification of export composition of upper middle-income countries and the impact of the technological composition of exported goods on GDP growth. Using the dynamic panel data analysis techniques for 34 countries between 1995-2015, we confirmed that exports of high technological products will have a significant positive impact on economic growth for upper middle-income countries as well as medium technological products’ exports which have a limited effect. The exports of low-tech products will have a negative effect for economic growth in the long run.
Nowadays small cities often lose population. In countries which are forerunners of the demographic transition, depopulation is mainly driven by out‐migration of youth. Through a case study of students from small Russian cities, this paper explores the nature of the association between local identity (LI) and migration intentions. The study suggests that young people with a stronger LI are on average more prone to return to their native cities after graduation. This ‘traditional’ relationship may be related to the difficulties in maintaining strong ties to a place of personal significance when not residing there in the Russian context. However, overall, youth tend towards a negative association with their cities and LI is formed as an opposition: the denial of place validity. Therefore, both way associations are possible. While a strong LI may influence the intention to migrate, it may also develop as an adaptation mechanism for those forced to return.
European regions experience accelerating ageing, but the process has substantial regional variation. This paper examines the effect of this variation on regional economic cohesion in Europe. We measure the effect of convergence or divergence in the share of the working age population on convergence or divergence in economies of NUTS 2 regions. The effect of convergence or divergence in ageing on economic convergence or divergence is quite substantial and, in some cases, is bigger than the effect of changes in productivity and labour force participation. Convergence of ageing leads to economic convergence only when the share of the working age population in rich regions exceeds that in poor regions and the former regions experience a substantial decline in the share of the working age population, or the latter regions experience an increase. During 2003–12, an inverse relationship between convergence in ageing and economic convergence was the rule rather than the exception.
Importance Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.
Objective To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.
Design, Setting, and Participants This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.
Exposures Firearm ownership and access.
Main Outcomes and Measures Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.
Results Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (−0.2% [95% UI, −0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35).
Conclusions and Relevance This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
The planning profession has been advocated as an untapped resource for obesity prevention, but little is known about how planners view their roles and responsibilities in this area. This paper investigates the role of planners in the Healthy Towns programme in England, and explores the limits and potential for obesity prevention within planning policy and practice. Using a qualitative approach, 23 planning stakeholders were interviewed, identifying the potential for planning in public health, particularly the ‘health proofing’ of local planning policy. National and local governments should better align planning and health policies to support collaboration between planners and public health practitioners.
Reviews of mixed tenure research have highlighted the lack of attention given to the processes of delivering mix. This research investigates the relationship between the spatial configuration of tenures produced within neighbourhoods, and residents’ views on the benefits and drawbacks of mixed tenure and their reported social interactions within and across tenures. Further, we consider how these effects are bound up with the particular contexts and development histories, or ‘modes of production’, of mixed tenure estates. Two peripheral estates and one inner city estate converted to mixed tenure over the past 10–20 years in Glasgow were examined through qualitative research with 37 residents in 7 neighbourhoods. The majority of respondents were positive about mixed tenure, though owners were more likely to qualify their support. Residents living in spatially integrated neighbourhoods were the most positive overall, and those in segregated neighbourhoods the least so. More positive views and accounts of mixed tenure were also most common on the estate which had been entirely redeveloped through a master-planning process.
Observing the dramatic increase in the flow of migrants since the 2000s, one can hypothesise that emergent access to the Internet and mobile communications has contributed to it. Indeed, information and communication technologies (ICTs) help potential migrants overcome the strongest barrier to migration – incomplete information. In a number of studies ICTs are found to assist migration decision-making. An alternative view suggests that ICTs enhance capacities to maintain working and family life across long distances. Empirical evidence for 191 countries for the period 1995–2015, confirms the negative link between changes in ICT development and migration intensity. In the medium- and long-term, the migration growth rate is lower in the countries with a higher ICT growth rate. The negative link may also be attributed to immigration policy developing, to face the challenges of increased availability of information needed for undertaking migration, and mitigate risk of uncontrolled migration.
At the turn of the 20th century, the issue of urban development was one of the key problems discussed by European architects. Architects were haunted by a fear of an expanding, sinister Metropolis that would trample humanity, make life in the city unbearable, and undermine traditional values and human interactions. The need to clear out the urban space seemed to be the primary task for architecture, and along with it questions were raised about expanding historical cities and building residences for socially defenseless residents. Among the proposed solutions, the concept of «instauratio urbis» (reiteration, restoration) was articulated—a traditional notion that one should restore the cultural significance of architecture as a repository of historical experience.
From the raw diamonds of the eighteenth century, it has been turned into today. Yet, even now, the indigenous India, largely hidden away from public vision. This is a picture of the realm of the Gonds, where it can be seen. It has been shaped by the local miners in Panna and is shaped by The miners dig, the miners dig, savoir vivre . They remain dynamic, and success. It is clear that they can bind themselves to the miner's life. This is a protagonist story that has been spelled out. Based on the ethnographic fieldwork in Pannah, Madhya Pradesh State University of Central Asia
We document the geographic concentration patterns of Russian manufacturing using detailed microgeographic data. About 80% of three‐digit industries are significantly agglomerated, and a similar share of three‐digit industry pairs is significantly coagglomerated. Industry pairs with stronger buyer–supplier links—as measured using Russian input–output tables—tend to be slightly more coagglomerated. This result is robust to instrumental variable estimation using either Canadian or US instruments. Using Canadian ad valorem transport costs as a proxy for transport costs in Russia, we further find that industries with higher transport costs are more dispersed, and industry pairs with higher transport costs are less coagglomerated.
Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.
We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.
The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.
The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
This paper analyzes regional features of migration of the elderly population in Russia. Data compiled from the 2010 All-Russia Population Census have revealed the share of people aged 60 years and older in the structure of interregional and intraregional migration flows and the intensity of this type of migration. Assessment of the migration intensity of the elderly in Russia demonstrates significant regional differentiation. Compared to Russia as a whole, the Far East and northern territories are distinguished by a high level of elderly migration intensity. At the same time, the beginning of “retirement” departures from these regions usually occurs earlier than is set by the retirement age limit for men and women in Russia. And in general, migration of the elderly from northern regions involves the relocation of the “young elderly.” The overwhelming majority of republics and autonomous entities are among the regions with a low intensity of migration of the elderly. This paper also identifies the main centers of attraction and outflow of elderly migrants within the Russian Federation and general features of elderly migration in Russia.