Thing. Analysis of existing and development of copyright methods for assessing the instability of the regional economy
Goals. The study of economic and statistical tools adequate to predict the financial instability of the regional economic system. Specification of models of economic indicators of financial instability, evaluation of their parameters, quality control of models and interpretation of the results.
Methodology. Statistical, design-constructive and economic-mathematical methods and the corresponding methods of data analysis were used.
Results. Identified a certain set of factors that influence the onset of a recession. Using different methods, the volatility of economic indicators that affect the financial instability of the regional economy has been determined, three alternative models have been constructed, which allow to determine the variability of economic indicators.
The smallest confidence interval of the forecast was obtained when calculating the cost estimate of risk, and the most optimistic forecast for one year was made using an integrated autoregressive model with a first-order moving average.
Building a regression model led to a larger confidence interval of the predicted value of the economic indicator in comparison with other models.
An adequate logit model was built to predict a recession, where growth rates of employment, balanced financial result and per capita income were used as regressors.
In analyzing the volatility of economic indicators, fractal analysis and the calculation of the cost measure of risk have a significant effect.
The used logit models allow to get a significant result if, as regressors, a set of social and economic indicators characterizing the public sector of the region's economy in a compartment is defined with the business sector.
The article considers a system of factors that contribute to the successful development of national regions. The author emphasizes that, despite the fact that each factor is very important for the economic development different regions, the biggest effect can be obtained by using the entire set of factors due to the their interconnection. Such interconnection should be taken into account in the documents defining the development strategy of certain territories.
The results of empirical study of the role of climato-economic characteristics of 85 Russian regions in the formation of collectivism on their territory are presented. Based on the results of previous research, authors suggested that in regions with sufficient level of economic resources of population for satisfying its needs that arise in accordance to more demanding climate the level of collectivism is lower, and vice versa in regions with insufficient level of economic resources of population for satisfying its needs the collectivism level is higher. These theoretical assumptions were verified, using database «EMISS», which made it possible to operationalize and calculate the index of collectivism for each region, based on statistical data. As predictors that influence the collectivism level in regions, the climate demand of regions and the economic resources of their population are considered. The study results have shown that the climatic demand in regions and the economic resources of their population can be predictors of the collectivism level on their territory.