The goal of this paper is to apply foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation major trends, most promising products and technologies.
To achieve this goal best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section ‘Nanotechnology and new materials’). The study used a wide range of advanced Foresight methods adapted to Russian circumstances. During the foresight study we integrated “market pull” and research “technology push” approaches including both traditional methods (priority-setting, roadmaps, global challenges analysis), and relatively new approaches (horizon scanning, weak signals, wild cards, etc.).
Using the methods of the Foresight we identified trends with the greatest impact on the sphere of nanotechnology and new materials, promising markets, product groups, and potential areas of demand for Russian innovation technologies and developments in this field. We assessed the state-of-the-art of the domestic research in the area of nanotechnologies and new materials to identify “blank spots”, as well as parity zone and leadership, which can be the basis for integration into international alliances and positioning of Russia as a center of global technological development in this field.
The results of applying foresight methodology towards revelation of the most prospective S&T areas in the field of nanotechnologies and new materials can be used by a variety of stakeholders including federal and regional authorities, technology platforms and innovation and industrial clusters, leading universities and scientific organizations in formulation their research and strategic agenda. Russian business including both large companies and SMEs can use results of the study in creating their strategic R&D programs and finding appropriate partners.
Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and electricity. The goal of the study was to foresee and agree on the visionary future for the nascent renewable energy sector in the country, as well as to provide the scientifically justified grounds for government and corporate decision-makers. The research is based on a mixture of methods: bibliometric analysis and text mining, literature review, expert surveys and interviews, workshops, STEEPV analysis of trends, scenario analysis, and applied policy analysis. As a result of the study, major trends and uncertainties that may affect the Russian and global renewable energy sector in the next 15-20 years were identified. Other results include the scenarios for Russia’s renewable energy sector that are proposed together with recommendations for the Russian companies and public authorities. The study’s policy and market implications go beyond Russia: the outcomes may be useful for similar studies, early stage renewable energy policy planning and investment decision.
One of the most important issues for the world society in the XXI century is a task to provide pure water for citizens. As evidenced results of expert survey, made by the Higher School of Economics
significant part of water sources for drinking water in Russia doesn’t meet necessary requirements. And one of the most adequate solutions to meet this challenge is using the nanotechnologies in processes of water purification that can solve the set of problems such as polluted sources, obsolete equipment, increased risk of diseases etc. Roadmap “Applying Nanotechnology to Water Treatment” was launched by summarizing opinions of expert community participants both national and foreign regarding the most significant nanotechnologies and products made with their help which are used or can be used for water treatment and purification purposes. The aim of the research is to make special innovation routes R&D-technologies-products-markets that could be used by federal and regional authorities and Russian companies working in the field of water purification. The roadmap becomes the first largescale national foresight exercise in the area of nanotechnologies for water purification.
On the Russian population opinion one of the most urgent ecology problems is the water pollution. By the data of Russian Federal Consumer Rights Protection and Human Health Control Service about 37% of the surface sources of centralized drinking water supply don`t meet sanitary norms and rules and 22% of Russian citizens do not have access to centralized water supply .
The study outlined three possible ways of overcoming above marked problems. The first method is based on the modern industrial-management scheme which is traditional for water provision in Russia. The second option suggests cleaning up sources of water intakes. The third way shows an option of varying treatment methods and technologies, depending on customer needs.
The Roadmap developed by Higher School of Economics and Rusnano indentified that nanotechnologies increase the efficiency and decrease energy consumption of traditional as well as innovation processes of water purification. In particular the perspective area of nanotechnology application is lies in the sphere of innovation sorbents and coagulants. Moreover nanotechnologies can also be used in baromembrane processes and membrane bioreactors.
Innovation technologies, processes and products implementation should be specific to individual regions and municipalities. This approach is based on the compliance of centralized and decentralized water supply, inlet and outlet water quality.
The Roadmap results are designed for the formation of government and regional policy on the pure water provision for population and industrial water treatment. Furthermore it indicates the most relevant business ideas and evaluates projects for nanotechnology and nanoproducts used in this field.
Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment.
Design/methodology/approach – The design of this study is based on the application of the core methods of Foresight. First, a trend analysis is undertaken using reviews and expert methods. Trends identified are mapped using a social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value (STEEPV) framework to ensure that a broad range of trends are covered, which may be stemming from various factors affecting the agriculture sector. The analysis of the big picture of global trends and challenges, interacting with country-specific structural factors, translates are translated into the opportunities and threats, which will in turn help to develop possible strategies for adaptation.
Findings – This study develops two adaptive strategies for the development of the Russian agroindustry that are feasible in different short- and long–term time horizons. The first strategy is considered to be the most likely choice for the period before 2020. It includes radical imports’ substitution (of commodities as well as machinery and high-tech components) for ensuring national food security with inevitable temporary setbacks in efficiency and labour productivity. The second strategy, which becomes feasible after 2020, considers re-integrating Russia into global supply chains and expanding commodities exports (volumes and nomenclature) based on full-scale technological modernization with the use of international capital.
Research limitations/implications – The study design is based on the assumption that Russia’s position as a country, which is highly self-sufficient on basic agricultural products and large exporter of crop commodities and fertilizers, will remain unchanged in the horizon of at least 20 years. However, long-term forecasts should also scrutinize the possibility of radical structural changes. Therefore, future research should concentrate on wild cards that can completely disrupt and transform the Russian agriculture industry and as well as the whole economy.
Practical implications – This paper suggests a number of recommendations on national science and technology policy for the three main industries of the Russian agricultural sector: crop husbandry, animal breeding and food processing (the fisheries sector is excluded from the scope of this paper). In addition, this paper proposes a number of measures towards alleviating the institutional barriers to raise the investment attractiveness of the sector.
Originality/value – The novelty of this paper lies in the originality of the research topic and methodology. The Russian agricultural sector has rarely been studied in the context of global agricultural challenges and threats taken on the highest level of aggregation beyond commodity market analysis or agro-climatic and logistics factors. There are few or no studies that lay out a map of possible long-term strategies of Russian agroindustry adaptive development. The Foresight methodology applied in this study is customized to better fit the practical purposes of the study.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.