Технологические скачки: теория и международные ИКТ-практики
A technological leapfrogging is a discrete stage in the development of a country or industry, representing the replacement of the previous technology with a fundamentally new one. The concept of technological leapfrogging has been developing since the mid-80s, but still there is no generally accepted definition. Interest in the conditions and structure of technological leaps has grown when it became clear that lagging countries and industries could develop rapidly by continuous imitation and innovation, jumping over obsolete technologies and avoiding investment in previous technological generations. The article relies on theoretical studies of leapfrogging and international experience in the development of information and communication technologies (ICT) for analysis of the conditions necessary for technological leaps. The ICT play a recognized role in economic growth and social development. Today, the catching-up countries have ambitious plans for ICT development, including next-generation fixed communications networks, 5G standard, e-commerce services and e-government. Based on analysis of global experience, we define conditions for a successful technological leapfrogging in Russia and discuss the potential for its implementation. In the conditions of sanctions, it is important not just to reverse-engineer, but to make a technological leap in order to ensure technological self-sufficiency. Russia partially created conditions for 5G technological leapfrogging by accumulating adaptation potential in terms of technology, equipment and personnel; developing science-industry cooperation; and creating conditions for favorable socio-technological climate.