Purpose – The purpose of the study is to present and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – ‘Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030’.
Design/methodology/approach - Methods applied in the Foresight study include literature review, statistical, bibliometric and patent analysis, a variety of expert methods, SWOT-analysis, market analysis and policy analysis. In this paper the author performs an ex-post analysis of the study.
Findings - As a result of the study, threats, opportunities, prospective innovative markets for products and services were identified for Russia. Russia's innovative technologies and products were assessed with benchmarking against global leaders. The study’s methodology and outcomes are critically reviewed and recommendations for their refinement are made.
Originality/value - This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbon to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex-post assessment of the study is made with implications for the suture research.
The energy security theories are based on the premises of sufficient and reliable supply of fossil fuels at affordable prices in centralized supply systems. Policy-makers and company chief executives develop energy security strategies based on the energy security theories and definitions that dominate in the research and policy discourse. It is therefore of utmost importance that scientists revisit these theories in line with the latest changes in the energy industry: the rapid advancement of renewables and smart grid, decentralization of energy systems, new environmental and climate challenges. The study examines the classic energy security concepts (neorealism, neoliberalism, constructivism and international political economy) and assesses if energy technology changes are taken into consideration. This is done through integrative literature review, comparative analysis, identification of ‘international relations’ and ‘energy’ research discourse with the use of big data, and case studies of Germany, China, and Russia. The paper offers suggestions for revision of energy security concepts through integration of future technology considerations.