### Article

## Universal exit probabilities in the TASEP

We study the joint exit probabilities of particles in the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) from space-time sets of a given form. We extend previous results on the space-time correlation functions of the TASEP, which correspond to exits from the sets bounded by straight vertical or horizontal lines. In particular, our approach allows us to remove ordering of time moments used in previous studies so that only a natural space-like ordering of particle coordinates remains. We consider sequences of general staircase-like boundaries going from the northeast to southwest in the space-time plane. The exit probabilities from the given sets are derived in the form of a Fredholm determinant defined on the boundaries of the sets. In the scaling limit, the staircase-like boundaries are treated as approximations of continuous differentiable curves. The exit probabilities with respect to points of these curves belonging to an arbitrary space-like path are shown to converge to the universal Airy 2 process.

We consider the totally asymmetric exclusion process in discrete time with generalized updating rules. We introduce a control parameter into the interaction between particles. Two particular values of the parameter correspond to known parallel and sequential updates. In the whole range of its values the interaction varies from repulsive to attractive. In the latter case the particle flow demonstrates an apparent jamming tendency not typical for the known updates. We solve the master equation for *N* particles on the infinite lattice by the Bethe ansatz. The non-stationary solution for arbitrary initial conditions is obtained in a closed determinant form.

Homogeneous and isotropic with respect to horizontal variables random fields are useful for study of geophysical (in particular, meteorological) functions of spatial-temporal variables. The following horizontal scale (30 — 3000 km), which is induced by the spatial scale of the observing grid for the Earth’s atmosphere and by the power of modern computers for solutions of the system of hydrothermodynamics equations, which included water phase transformations etc, is important for the weather forecast problems.

The correlation functions (CFs) of the random fields may be applied for the following goals:

1) For the optimal interpolation of the meteorological information from the points of observation into the points of a regular finite-difference grid, as well as (for the checking of some observations by other ones) into another point of the observation.

2) For the models’ testing, if a climate model simulates adequately not only mean fields, but the fields of the relative dispersions and CFs, too, then we should consider the climate model as a certain one.

The CFs are evaluated by the global checked archive of meteorological observations by meteorological sounds. A special regularization procedure provides the strong positive definiteness of the CFs. The areas in the Earth atmosphere, where the isotropy hypothesis is essentially not fulfilled, were localized by a special algorithm.

Let us consider an algorithm, which can construct atmospheric fronts that separate so named homogeneous synoptic atmospheric volumes. Then we can evaluate separately CFs for the ensemble of the pairs of points, which are in a unite volume and CFs for the ensemble of the pairs of points, which are in a various volumes. We can see the difference between the different CFs. The difference will be more for a better algorithm. So, we obtain a quality criterion for such algorithms. The statistical approach given possibility to optimize the algorithm with respect to a lot of numerical parameters. The optimal algorithm was exploited in the operative regime in Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. The similar algorithms of numerical construction of boundaries between homogeneous volumes by a discrete set of observations can be realized for various physical media.

In this study we investigate the properties of correlation function of the special type. Function is used in deriving basic integro - differential equation for the evolution of the averaged concentration of particles in the presence of the random force.

Our result confirms the previously used proposition, which is the core for basic equation deriving.

A computational method for diagnosing threedimensional atmospheric fronts from temperature, wind, and geopotential fields on a threedimensional regular grid is proposed. The criterion, which serves for the diagnosis of atmospheric fronts, is discussed. The weights of the input information about the mentioned fields are optimized based on the maximal difference between the correlation functions for (a) pairs of parti cles separated by the front and (b) pairs from one synoptic mass. These weights were different for different baric levels. The correlation functions and the optimization of weights were estimated on the basis of the archive of fields of the NCEP objective analysis on the halfdegree latitude–longitude grid and data from aerological observations. The results of numerical experiments on the construction of atmospheric fronts are presented. Applying the described method to fields predicted for a term of up to 36 h showed that errors in the prognostic models introduce a relatively weak distortion into the geometry of atmospheric fronts.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.