Оценка возможности сохранения порядка в государстве с применением искусственных нейронных сетей
A political science-mathematical model has been built, designed to assess the possible
to maintain order in the state. The model is based on a neural network trained on
data on the state of many countries in different historical periods. Shown is adequate
the validity of the model by comparing the simulation results with the real course of historical
processes. The model was used to estimate the significance of the input parameters. Installed
but that the most significant parameters that have the greatest impact on the situation in
country, are taxes, the state of the economy, the availability of essential goods.
The influence of the most significant parameters on the course of historical events is demonstrated at
examples of the situation in France in the period 1629-1634. and in the Ottoman Empire during 1799-1804. Com-
puter experiments were carried out by the scenario forecasting method: using a neural network
calculations were carried out when enumerating the values of one parameter or a small fixed group
the parameters, while the values of the other parameters remained unchanged.
An attempt has been made to predict the development of the situation in Venezuela for the next five years. You-
completed a large number of options for predicting the development of events, depending on various combinations
possible measures taken by the government to stabilize the situation. Based on these
forecasts selected the most effective measures to reduce tensions in the country.
The practical value of the study lies in the fact that the created political science and mathematical model
del can be used to assess the possibility of maintaining order in modern states and
determining the steps necessary to prevent or trigger revolutions, civil wars, etc.