Pitfalls of In-Domain Uncertainty Estimation and Ensembling in Deep Learning
Uncertainty estimation and ensembling methods go hand-in-hand. Uncertainty estimation is one of the main benchmarks for assessment of ensembling performance. At the same time, deep learning ensembles have provided state-of-the-art results in uncertainty estimation. In this work, we focus on in-domain uncertainty for image classification. We explore the standards for its quantification and point out pitfalls of existing metrics. Avoiding these pitfalls, we perform a broad study of different ensembling techniques. To provide more insight in this study, we introduce the deep ensemble equivalent score (DEE) and show that many sophisticated ensembling techniques are equivalent to an ensemble of only few independently trained networks in terms of test performance.
The guarantee of qualitative development of the economy is a well-functioning market of capital’s attracting and allocation. In the modern world of high technology innovations, the capital market has also undergone a structural transformation and gave rise to such a phenomenon as a high-risk investment in conditions of high uncertainty, for example, which can serve venture capital and high-frequency exchange trading. However, traditional financial theory is not sensitive to the urgent needs of practitioners in the assessment of such risks. The authors of this paper have attempted to demonstrate the need to review some of the basic postulates of the classical theory of Finance to better address issues when making investment decisions.
Article is devoted to problem solving of a lack of capital resources for realization of project portfolio on basis of revealed laws in financing, budgeting and capital rationing system in the company.
The issues of choice in traditional psychology exists with the topics of planning and decision making. on influencing of existential psychology the issue of choice becomes connected with personal responsibility and taking on uncertainty, which are closely connected to the personal potential of the subject.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.