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  • Оценка распространенности злокачественных новообразований в России с применением модели заболеваемость-смертность

Article

Оценка распространенности злокачественных новообразований в России с применением модели заболеваемость-смертность

Демографическое обозрение. 2018. Т. 5. № 3. С. 103-126.

This paper aims to estimate the cancer mortality and morbidity derivatives for the Russian population given the limited access to medical and demographic data. The multiple decrement life table method also known as the population model of cancer was originally proposed by J. Duchêne and makes it possible to assess otherwise inaccessible indicators, such as the prevalence of cancer in the Russian population. Applying this model to the publicly available data on cancer mortality and morbidity, we were able to estimate the following indicators for the Russian population: average age at malignant neoplasms (MN) diagnosis, the average duration of disease, the prevalence of MN, and an average age at death from MN. We aimed to determine whether the prevalence of MN is increasing in the Russian Federation and whether this growth is occurring due to the expansion of morbidity.

It was found that the average age at cancer diagnosis, along with the average age at death from cancer, is increasing in the Russian population, with the primacy of the latter. These processes are in turn resulting in an increase of the average number of years lived with cancer, hence justifying the claim for an expansion of morbidity. This phenomenon, along with the increase in the incidence of MN, is the cause of the increase in MN prevalence in Russia.

Localizations with the highest and lowest MN prevalence were identified, as well as localizations for which the expansion of morbidity phenomenon does not occur. It was found that in Russia the general trend is for the expansion of morbidity, expressed in an increase in the number of years lived in an imperfect health condition. MN of the lip, oral cavity and oesophagus (C00 - C15) in women is the only localization for which this phenomenon is not observed. This localization is the only exception to the otherwise observed expansion of morbidity. The main limitations and drawbacks of the study are discussed in a separate section.