Commitment Issues: Ukraine and Syria as Bargaining Failures
Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria are designed to force the U.S. to accept a new “grand bargain” about the future of world order. Drawing on bargaining theory, the article argues that any such bargain suffers from acute commitment problems. Russia cannot convince the U.S. that there are limits to its revisionism, while the U.S. is unable to reassure Russia that it won’t renege on any agreements as Russian power declines. President Donald Trump has hinted at détente. But as long as these underlying commitment problems remain unresolved, the two sides will continue their slide towards a new Cold War.
The book undertakes to assess whether political realism as an International Relations theory still helps us to understand the foreign policies of key European actors. The contributors ask whether foreign policy actors in Europe understand the international system and behave as realists. They ask what drives their behaviour, how they construct material capabilities and to what extent they see material power as the means to ensure survival in a post-Cold War context apparently marked by growing instability. The contributors use or contest realism in its different forms in order identify continuity or change in the foreign policy of key European actors.
The forecast covers the period up to 2035. It describes dynamic trends that will shape the future of the world during the nearest 20 years. The aim of this study is to foresee the challenges awaiting the world and the forthcoming opportunities which can be used in the interests of the Russian state, ensuring its role as an active participant in the formation of the future world order. The book presents a general analysis of the main trends of world development, its spiritual culture, ideology, politics, innovation, economy, social sphere and interna tional security, the problems of globalization and regionalism. The final section of the book presents strategic recommendations for Russia. Prospective readers of this book include staff members of government institutions and management bodies, research, expert and business communities. It also may be recommended for student scholars of international affairs.
According to the current concept of foreign policy of the Russian Federation, soft power should take an important place in the foreign policy strategy of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, at the present stage, thinking, both Russian political circles that adopt foreign policy decisions, and the Russian expert-scientific community's views on the soft influence in international relations, contain a number of conceptual flaws. These flaws do not allow an objective and relevant analysis of the possibility and prospects for the soft influence of the Russian Federation on the international arena. Proceeding from this, the article offers a genealogical analysis of the two most successful forms of soft influence - "soft power", which is a significant tool for pursuing US foreign policy and the "normative force of Europe," in which most of the foreign policy directions of the European Union are implemented. The analysis proposed in the article allows, firstly, identify the conceptual structure of both studied forms of soft power, and secondly, to compare these structures, which allows us to affirm the fundamental, quality genealogical uniqueness of each of the two forms of soft power in contemporary international relations. In addition, the analysis allows for a more conceptual approach to the problem of the possibility of Russia's soft influence, as well as to abandon the popular research focus on financing the soft influence of one or another participant in international relations.
The conflict in Ukraine and Russia's annexation of Crimea has undoubtedly been a pivotal moment for policy makers and military planners in Europe and beyond. Many analysts see an unexpected character in the conflict and expect negative reverberations and a long-lasting period of turbulence and uncertainty, the de-legitimation of international institutions and a declining role for global norms and rules. Did these events bring substantial correctives and modifications to the extant conceptualization of International Relations? Does the conflict significantly alter previous assumptions and foster a new academic vocabulary, or, does it confirm the validity of well-established schools of thought in international relations? Has the crisis in Ukraine confirmed the vitality and academic vigour of conventional concepts?
The article analyzes the Italian Republic foreign policy stance on the Syrian civil war. The internal and external factors affecting the official Rome foreign policy decision-making process examined. Particular attention in this context is paid to the effects of the global financial-economic crisis which converted Italy into one of the «sick counties» of the European Union.
The article is devoted to the problems of the development of modern
relations of Russia, China and the Pacific states of Latin America. Author focuses
on potential of cooperation of these states in multilateral formats and dialogues and
the reform of the economic and institutional order in the Asia-Pacific. The relevance
of such cooperation is increasing due to the crisis of the international order that has
emerged in the Asia-Pacific region. This crisis manifests itself in two aspects. First,
we may observe a certain lack of institutions of regulation of economic relations
and ideas for their further development. Such a complex agenda is shaped by Russia
and China in relation to Eurasia (the concept of “Greater Eurasia”), but the promotion
of a similar agenda in the APEC faces many contradictions. Second, the Asia-Pacific
region is becoming an area of confrontation between the United States and China,
which is also manifested in the struggle for the future configuration of the regional
order in the region. The Pacific countries of Latin America were
not affected by either the Russian or Chinese mega-initiatives of recent years, which
are aimed precisely at creating a new international order. Meanwhile, these countries
are APEC members and participants in many regional initiatives, as well as potentially
significant economic partners for both Russia and China. Moreover, the author believes
that a similar level of economic development and similar needs objectively bring together
the views and approaches of the leading Eurasian powers and the Pacific states of Lat-
in America to the development of multilateral institutions of the regional order. However,
the historically established institutional and political linkage of these countries to
the United States currently determines their support for American initiatives. This provision,
however, is not a given, and some irregularity of the American regional policy under
the Trump administration makes the development of dialogue with these countries on
the broad problems of multilateral cooperation in Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region
even more in demand. The author considers the proposed analysis
and some conclusions as an opportunity for academic and expert discussion on the