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Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?
Journal of Economics and Econometrics. 2017. Vol. 60. No. 1. P. 1-27.
Ivashchenko S., Gupta R.
New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: temporary near-rational expectations (TNRE) and persistent near-rational expectations (PNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model was estimated with the RE, the TNRE and the PNRE. It was estimated with and without observations from the survey's expectations. The quality of the out-of-sample forecasts was estimated. It is shown that near-rational concepts produce the same advantages as learning, without its disadvantages (including the absence of ‘learning expectations’ reactions on policy change). The influence of the observed expectations on forecasting quality was analysed.
Publication based on the results of:
Ivashchenko S., Gupta R., / University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. Series University of Pretoria, Department of Economics "University of Pretoria, Department of Economics". 2016. No. 201655.
New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: temporary near-rational expectations (TNRE) and persistent near-rational expectations (PNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model was estimated with the RE, the TNRE and the PNRE. It was estimated with and without observations from the survey's expectations. The quality of the out-of-sample forecasts was estimated. It is ...
Added: November 9, 2016
Shulgin A. G., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2017 Т. 33 № 1 С. 75-115
In the paper DSGE model is estimated with two independent monetary instruments and limited ability to perform intertemporal optimization of households’ consumption. The model is estimated on the Russian data of 2001— 2014 for revealing two-dimensional monetary policy shocks: foreign exchange rate shocks and interest rate shocks. The estimation takes into account structural break in ...
Added: May 24, 2017
Andrei G. Shulgin, International Economic Journal 2018 Vol. 32 No. 4 P. 631-668
Stabilizing monetary policy in a small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In this paper we investigate whether foreign exchange market interventions and the Central Bank’s credit rationing at the official rate (CROR) may soften this constraint and improve the results of monetary policy for different monetary regimes. We construct a DSGE ...
Added: November 5, 2018
Malakhovskaya O. A., Minabutdinov A., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2013. No. WP BRP 48/EC/2013.
This paper constructs a DSGE model for an economy with commodity exports. We estimate the model on Russian data, making a special focus on quantitative effects of commodity price dynamics. There is a widespread belief that economic activity in Russia crucially depends on oil prices, but quantitative estimates are scarce. We estimate an oil price ...
Added: January 28, 2014
Shulgin A. G., Прикладная эконометрика 2014 Т. 36 № 4 С. 3-31
This paper presents a three-sector DSGE model for a small open economy under the intermediate exchange rate regime. The central bank balance sheet equations are added to allow introducing two different monetary policy rules in the model. The principal question is how many independent monetary policy rules do we need to describe Russian monetary policy ...
Added: October 10, 2014
Pyltsyna E., / НИУ ВШЭ. Series 206EC2018 " WP BRP “Economics/EC”". 2018.
Added: February 5, 2019
Shulgin A. G., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 103/EC/2015.
Stabilizing monetary policy in small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In a crisis this constraint may not allow Central Bank to cut interest rate because it may cause huge capital flight and subsequent problems. In this paper we investigate whether performed by Central Bank rationing of credit at official rate may ...
Added: October 22, 2015
Arefiev N., / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2011. No. 06.
This paper presents a generalized application of the Calvo pricing approach, assuming that in each particular market, both prices and quantities are adjusted according to the Calvo approach. With certain
restrictions placed on the parameters, the system of log-linearized equations that I derived using the generalized Calvo approach produces similar dynamics within the economy as are ...
Added: August 29, 2012
Shulgin A. G., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2015 Т. 26 № 2 С. 64-98
Optimization of coefficients in monetary policy rules is performed on the base of the DSGE-model with two independent monetary policy instruments estimated on the Russian data. It was found that welfare maximizing policy rules lead to inadequate result and pro-cyclical monetary policy. Optimal coefficients in Taylor rule and exchange rate rule allow decreasing about 20% ...
Added: October 10, 2014
М. : КноРус, 2012
Представлена экономическая оценка природно-ресурсного потенциала РФ, рассмотрены закономерности размещения природных ресурсов и основные особенности экологической ситуации в регионах страны, описано влияние экологических факторов на демографический потенциал и здоровье населения, приведена характеристика основных загрязнителей окружающей среды, изложены основы природно-ресурсной политики России и хозяйственный механизм ее осуществления, раскрыты региональные различия современной экологической обстановки в стране и тенденции ...
Added: March 10, 2013
Lipatnikov V. S., Гребенькова Е. С., Проблемы теории и практики управления 2014 № 12 С. 89-96
In this article is conducted research of the mechanism of selection of venture innovative projects. We studied the factors, which influence a choice of business angels. The purpose of work was to receive an advanced system of estimation of projects. On the basis of the survey it is possible to say that the financing of ...
Added: December 8, 2014
Oxford Abstracts, 2021
Recovering from Covid: Responsible Management and Reshaping the Economy
In 2021, the 35th Conference and 2nd BAM Conference in the Cloud, will critically engage with the socio-economic recovery from the global Covid-19 pandemic.
Consumers, producers, frontline workers, managers, businesses, public and third sector organisations all have their own roles and responsibilities in transforming our marketised society for the post-pandemic world.
We will critically explore the challenges we all face, aiming to ...
Added: June 12, 2021
Kotelnikova M. V., Aistov A., Вестник Нижегородского университета им. Н.И. Лобачевского. Серия: Социальные науки 2019 Т. 55 № 3 С. 183-189
The article describes a method that allows to improve the content of disciplines of the mathematical cycle by dividing them into invariant (general) and variable parts. The invariants were identified for such disciplines as «Linear algebra», «Mathematical analysis», «Probability theory and mathematical statistics» delivered to Bachelors program students of economics at several universities. Based on ...
Added: January 28, 2020
М. : ИНИОН РАН, 2014
В сборнике рассматриваются теоретические и практические проблемы взаимодействия человека, техносферы и биосферы, а также преодоления антропогенной деградации биосферы.
Для научных работников, специалистов, преподавателей и аспирантов. ...
Added: October 22, 2014
Dzhagityan E. P., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2019 Т. 14 № 2 С. 245-274
The institutional aspect of post-crisis banking regulation reform (Basel III) remains unsettled, and as such undermines regulators’ efforts to shape a seamless platform for international financial intermediation. The lack of global acceptance of the Basel III standards amid the internationalization of banking activities is one of the main reasons for regulatory asymmetries which are difficult ...
Added: August 28, 2018
Kuchmaeva O., Население и экономика 2018 Т. 2 № 4 С. 47-84
Статья посвящена анализу масштабов и видов социальной активности пожилых россиян. Актуальность данной проблемы обусловлена масштабами демографического старения, ставшего уже предметом целенаправленной социальной политики в России и странах мира. Реализуя Международный план действий по проблемам старения, в частности, в рамках Стратегии действий в интересах граждан старшего поколения в Российской
Федерации до 2025 г., важно понимать, насколько сейчас ...
Added: October 30, 2019
Smirnov S. V., Balashova E., Posvianskaia L., Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
Krukov V. A., ЭКО 2018 Т. 48 № 10 С. 4-6
Социально-экономическое развитие территории – от отдельного муниципалитета до региона, страны и межгосударственных коалиций – определяется огромным количеством факторов, условий и обстоятельств. История, природа, географическое положение, ранее принятые и реализованные решения в тесном взаимодействии с культурными особенностями населения образуют колоссальный веер возможностей и траекторий такого развития.
В этой связи чужой успешный опыт часто мало применим на практике. Он, скорее, показывает нам, в каких направлениях можно развиваться и какие возможные подходы целесообразно рассматривать при выборе своего пути. Например, сегодня ...
Added: October 20, 2018
Турунцева М., Астафьева Е., Баева М. et al., Научный вестник ИЭП им. Гайдара.ру (электронный журнал) 2015 № 3(85) С. 3-33
В статье представлены расчеты прогнозных значений различных экономических показателей Российской Федерации во II–III кварталах 2015 г., построенные на основе моделей временных рядов, структурных эконометрических уравнений и моделей, построенных с использованием результатов конъюнктурных опросов. ...
Added: June 18, 2015
Gusarova S., М. : МАКС Пресс, 2013
В монографии раскрывается сущность иностранных инвестиций, их значение в мировой экономике, анализируются основные концепции иностранного инвестирования, определяются инвестиционные риски. ...
Added: November 18, 2013
Parshakov P., Shakina E., Barajas A., Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 2022 Vol. 35 No. 1 P. 122-142
This article contributes to the development of contestable market theory by investigating how competitiveness in the eSports industry influences the size of this industry, as measured by the volume of monetary prizes. We use data on each gamer's prize earnings for each tournament from 1999 to 2015 to estimate panel vector autoregression (VAR) model with ...
Added: April 22, 2021
Chulok A., Slobodianik S., Moiseichev E. Y., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 511-527
Purpose
This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.
Design/methodology/approach
Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on ...
Added: October 3, 2017
Neretina Ekaterina, Neretina E., Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics 2013 Vol. 3 No. 1 P. 65-76
The last market crash of 2008-2009 showed that the construction sphere is one of the most fragile subject to the crisis effect. The destructive effect of this crash resulted in substantial decrease in mortgage lending, price index, capital investment, and in growth of the cost level. As the construction industry remains strategically important, the eruption ...
Added: September 5, 2013
Safonov G., Галенович А., Федоров Ю. Н., Энергия: экономика, техника, экология 2012 № 5 С. 37-39
The article discusses the potential role of Russia in global carbon markets, prospects and opportunities for national businesses in greenhouse gas emission reduction ...
Added: July 20, 2016