R&D Effects, Risks and Strategic Decisions: Evidence from Listed Firms in R&D-intensive Countries
Purpose. The purpose of this research is to look at effects of research and development expenditures (R&D) on value and risks of publicly traded companies by studying returns on stock exchanges of R&D-intensive economies (Republic of Korea, Finland, and Israel). Design/Methodology/Approach. Empirical tests of multifactor asset pricing models were applied in order to demonstrate that R&D intensity could be considered a pricing factor and affect investors’ risk premiums on those markets. In order to discover the reasons behind the asset pricing R&D anomaly, we investigated the nature of R&D risk further by looking into the interactions of R&D and currency risks. Findings. We discover that investors in stock markets of R&D-intensive countries should require a positive equity risk premium. However, the reduction of R&D intensity may increase firm’s risks and firms with higher R&D-intensity are less exposed to currency risks in R&Dintensive economies. Originality/value. Many researchers have investigated the relationship between a firm’s R&D and stock returns. But nearly all of them focus on the U.S. stock market and attempt to determine the reasons for R&D’s impact on firms’ risks and market value. Meanwhile, the role of R&D and related risks for investors could be even more prominent for stock markets in R&D intensive countries. In order to bridge this gap, we study stock returns on exchanges of three developed countries where the ratio of Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) to GDP is among the highest worldwide. We adopted the methodology of asset pricing empirical studies and developed it further to analyze the causes of R&D risks. The new methodology was applied to discover relationship between R&D intensity and currency risk exposure. Our interesting findings could be used for development of firm’s corporate strategies in those countries and for elaboration of policy decisions.
This study focuses on the analysis of the financial impact of positive and negative PR-communication on the Russian aviation market. The influence of all types of PR activity on increase in shares sales was found and attributed on the example of three largest Russian airlines. It is also shown that an increase in the number of negative information about the company in mass media leads to decrease its share prices, which will not happen in the reverse case, an increase in the quantity of positive information does not leads to increase share prices and prices volatility.
World fi nancial crisis and increased volatility of major economic indicators raised attention to the problem of fi nancial risk management in corporations, and to the possibilities of fi nancial derivatives usage for hedging. In perfect markets hedging by means of derivatives allows corporations to mitigate fi nancial risks allowing for minimum costs. Current paper examines factors that restrict usage of derivatives for hedging currency risks by corporations on Russian fi nancial market. It is concluded that on Russian market it is reasonable to use internal facilities as basic method of currency risk management: asset/liability management, regulation of debt
currency structure, diversifi cation, etc. Derivatives should be used in addition to these facilities in very limited volumes for hedging the most predictable sources of risk.
We develop a model of asset pricing and hedging for interconnected financial markets with frictions – transaction costs and portfolio constraints. The model is based on a control theory for random fields on a directed graph. Market dynamics are described by using von Neumann – Gale dynamical systems first considered in connection with the modelling of economic growth [13,24]. The main results are hedging criteria stated in terms of risk-acceptable portfolios and consistent price systems, extending the classical superreplication criteria formulated in terms of equivalent martingale measures.
The problem of stationarity of sign coincidence of returns is considered. Statinarity of sign coincidence of a pair of stocks is tested by two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-Square tests. Multiple comparison pocedures, such as Bonferroni and Holm procedures, are employed to test stationarity of sign coincidence in market network and to control the family-wise error rate (FWER). The method is validated for testing stationarity of stock's prices and returns. It is shown that the hypotheesis of stationarity is rejected for prices and it is not rejected for returns and their sign coincidence on some significance level.
Carry trades consistently generate high excess returns with high Sharp ratios, but are subject to crash risk. I take a closer look at the link between the carry trade returns and the stock market to understand the risks involved and to determine when and why currency crashes happen. Every period, I sort currencies of developed and emerging economies by their interest rates and form portfolios to diversify the idiosyncratic risk. First, I find a strong negative relationship between portfolio returns and skewness of exchange rate changes. In fact, skewness and coskewness with the stock market have a much greater explanatory power in the cross-section of excess returns than consumption and stock market betas. But separating the market beta into upside and downside betas improves the validity of the CAPM significantly. Downside beta has a much greater explanatory power than upside beta, and it correlates with coskewness almost perfectly. This means that carry trades crash exactly in the worst states of the world, when the stock market goes down. After controlling for country risk, the downside beta premium in the currency market is comparable to that in the stock market and equals 2-4 percentage points p.a. I also find that country risk proxies well for the downside beta and skewness. This suggests that there is unwinding of carry trades and a “flight to quality” when the stock market plunges, and that lower interest rate currencies serve as a “safe haven”. Finally, I estimate even higher downside betas of the top portfolios and I find an even greater explanatory power of the downside beta in the early 2000s. The growing volume of carry activities might have contributed to the closer link between the currency and the stock markets.
Some currencies persistently move together with the stock market and crash in periods of market downturns or high volatility, while others serve as a “safe haven”. In this paper, I study whether or not countries’ macroeconomic characteristics are systematically related to the market risk of their currencies. I find that the market risk is not random, especially on the downside, and it can be predicted by macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the market risk has increased significantly since the 2000s, and its predictability also increased. The real interest rate has the highest explanatory power in accounting for the cross-section of currency market risk. Currencies of countries with high local real interest rates have high market betas, especially downside betas, while low real interest rate currencies are immune to stock market changes. Nominal interest rates also have some explanatory power, but only to the extent to which they correlate with the real interest rates. Other variables considered seem to be irrelevant.
The problem of stability of connections of stock returns over time is considered. This problem is formulated as a multiple testing problem of homogeneity of covariance matrices. A statistical procedure based on Box’s M-test and Bonferroni correction is proposed. This procedure is applied to French and German stock markets.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
The paper studies a problem of optimal insurer’s choice of a risk-sharing policy in a dynamic risk model, so-called Cramer-Lundberg process, over infinite time interval. Additional constraints are imposed on residual risks of insureds: on mean value or with probability one. An optimal control problem of minimizing a functional of the form of variation coefficient is solved. We show that: in the first case the optimum is achieved at stop loss insurance policies, in the second case the optimal insurance is a combination of stop loss and deductible policies. It is proved that the obtained results can be easily applied to problems with other optimization criteria: maximization of long-run utility and minimization of probability of a deviation from mean trajectory.