Losses of expected lifetime in the US and other developed countries: methods and empirical analyses.
The death rate in Russia is much higher than in the economically developed countries and has a very special developmental trajectory due to historical features. The total life expectancy in Russia, despite the positive trends of the last decade, lags far behind the economically developed countries. Modelling and forecasting mortality is of great importance from a scientific and practical point of view, insurance companies and pension funds are constantly need of such research, because prediction of life expectancy allows to calculate adequate insurance rates and to estimate the required insurance reserves. The actuarial stochastic models that appeared at the end of the 20th century significantly advanced the actuarial science in the question of life expectancy evaluation. The presented work is devoted to the classic models of Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd, and their modified versions with the inclusion of the cohort effect, that was built with the StMoMo package in the R software environment. We found, that Renshaw-Haberman model (Lee-Carter model with the cohort effect) fits the Russian data best. For modelling, the age-specific mortality rates and the probability of dying for 1959-2014 were taken. For the population aged 20 to 88 years from the international database on mortality (Human Mortality Database). Forecasting was carried out using standard ARIMA models.
The monograph is devoted to the problems arising in the analysis of demographic processes, the calculation of net rates and assessment of reserves in the major life insurance contract. The results of studies involving various related parties of the analyzed issues. For example, given a detailed comparative analysis of pre- and disadvantages of organization of the insurance market in Russia and abroad. With used - vaniem various techniques built a ranking of countries in terms of development of the market under study.
The basis of actuarial calculations in the basic life insurance contracts are demo graphic processes: in particular, information about the mortality rate. The foundation for the construction of a net rates and valuation reserves in the life insurance contract is the data of mortality tables, which are based, in turn, is an indicator of how Vero die before reaching next age interval. In this regard, the authors present the theoretical aspects of the construction of the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts. The paper discusses methods of constructing mortality tables , raised the problem of statistical analysis of demographic processes in actuarial calculations, an overview of the basic formulas used to derive the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts.
The authors of the classification of the Russian Federation in terms of economic and demographic character. Some representatives of the obtained clusters The results of the study of the dynamics of demographic processes. It analyzes the main trends in life expectancy at age and sex and the regional context.
Of course, the authors have paid special attention to the analysis of the impact of demographic, financial factors on change of the tariff policy of life insurance contracts, as well as the impact on the rate and size of the allowance conditions of the contract. The research data for the city of Moscow as a financial and information center of Russia, which significantly affects the development of the insurance market as a whole (not only in the life insurance sector).
The results of these studies may be interested in a wide range of professionals in the field of economics, actuarial calculations in life insurance analysts.
Insurance companies and pension funds are affected by many different kinds of risks. In life insurance there are two main risks: the demographic risk and the investment risk. The demographic risk can be dividing into insurance risk and longevity risk. The first risk associated with the random deviation of the number of deaths from its expected value, the second deriving from the improvement in mortality rates. Numbers of actuarial stochastic models have been developed to analyse the mortality changes. This work focuses on Lee-Carter, Cairns-Blake-Dowd models and their extended versions with the inclusion of the cohort effect. We construct 6 stochastic actuarial models on Russian data at the first time. For modelling we use age-specific mortality rates and the probability of dying between 1959 and 2014 for the population aged 20 to 88 years from the Human Mortality Database. We consider age range from 20 to 88. Using the "StMoMo" package in the R software environment, code was written for modelling and predicting mortality with the help of actuarial stochastic models. For comparison of models, information criteria (Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion) were used, as well as sensitivity to changing the time range.
Moscow is the region with the highest life expectancy in Russia. The country’s largest city, it has high incomes, a special population structure and a high concentration of all resources, including in the healthcare sector, which is given special attention by the city authorities. In some periods, the changes in life expectancy in Moscow have been unique compared to most other regions of Russia. The difference in life expectancy between Moscow and Russia in the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s was mainly due to lower mortality in middle age. Since the mid-2000s, the main contribution to the difference in life expectancy has been shifting to old age mortality. Given the overall rapid decline of mortality in Moscow since then, changes in the mortality rates and life expectancy of certain age groups seem implausible. The quality of population and mortality data has a significant impact on the accuracy of estimates of mortality indicators and requires special attention in the case of Moscow. In particular, the number of people at advanced ages in Moscow is likely to be overestimated, which affects mortality rates in this age group. Peculiarities of mortality by causes of death in Moscow generally correspond to the average Russian trends; however, in Moscow a more rapid decrease in mortality from neoplasms is observed, as well as more realistic age-specific death rates in older age groups.
The poor quality of mortality statistics from external causes in Russia and its regions is reflected in high death rates from causes named "Injuries with undetermined intent", which includes not only deaths from accidents but also the latent murders and suicides. On the basis of mortality statistics from the class "External causes of morbidity and mortality" of ICD-10 and mortality from a number of causes of "Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified " and "Diseases of the circulatory system" were built four models of mortality for the Republic of Bashkortostan, which provide an assessment of the potential mortality from homicides, suicides and alcohol poisonings. On average, according to the models 1-3 the possible mortality rate of homicide higher than the official 1.6 times in men and by 1.4 times in women, suicides – by 1.2 times in both sexes, alcohol poisoning – 1.8 times in men and 2.1 times for women. According to the model 4 the growth of mortality rate from homicide was 3.8 times and 3.2 times for men and women respectively, suicide – 1.4 times and 2 times, and finally, alcohol poisoning 3 times and 5.9 times. The mortality rate from the entire class "External causes" in model 4 increased 1.2 times for men and 1.4 times in women, which was mainly due to the increased mortality in working ages (15-60 years).
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.
This article is talking about state management and cultural policy, their nature and content in term of the new tendency - development of postindustrial society. It mentioned here, that at the moment cultural policy is the base of regional political activity and that regions can get strong competitive advantage if they are able to implement cultural policy successfully. All these trends can produce elements of new economic development.