Ignorance is bliss: Should a pension reform be announced?
This paper studies whether a pension reform, namely a switch from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) to a more-funded scheme should be announced. We show that such an announcement increases savings, leading to a decline in interest rates. Smaller returns to savings lead to higher losses for the first transitional generation, which suffers from the reform the most. On the other hand, higher savings by the first transitional generation lead to faster capital accumulation, which benefits younger generations. We argue that if a government cares about the agents with the most to lose, it may more beneficial not to announce such a reform.
The paper presents a review of stochastic framework for term structure modeling and shows comparative advantages of commonly used techniques. The main application of the research is coherent modeling of credit and interest rate risk for Euro zone issuers.
Russland ist eine alternde Gesellschaft. Mit der späten Lebensphase beschäftigte sich primär die Medizin. Das Bild vom Alter war negativ. Erst seit den 1990er Jahren kommt das Bild in Bewegung. Das ist ein Verdienst der sozialpsychologisch orientierten Gerontologie. Der sozioökonomische Umbruch verschärfte die sozialen Probleme, öffnete aber auch neue Wege zu deren Bewältigung. Heute gibt es in Russland soziale Dienste, deren Qualität aber an mangelhaften gesetzlichen Grundlagen, lückenhafter Ausbildung des Personals und dem Fehlen zivilgesellschaftlicher Institutionen krankt.
The article presents a review of events in the financial market in 2007-2008. The author studies the interconnection between macroeconomic policy conducted by the USA monetary authorities since beginning of 1980-s till now, and the risks which have concentrated in the financial system and resulted in the crisis. The author specifies the mechanisms of the crisis deepening and broadening, and gives her own evaluation to them.
The paper studies a problem of optimal insurer’s choice of a risk-sharing policy in a dynamic risk model, so-called Cramer-Lundberg process, over infinite time interval. Additional constraints are imposed on residual risks of insureds: on mean value or with probability one. An optimal control problem of minimizing a functional of the form of variation coefficient is solved. We show that: in the first case the optimum is achieved at stop loss insurance policies, in the second case the optimal insurance is a combination of stop loss and deductible policies. It is proved that the obtained results can be easily applied to problems with other optimization criteria: maximization of long-run utility and minimization of probability of a deviation from mean trajectory.