Оперативная статистическая информация о населении: возможности и ограничения
The article considers possibilities and limitations for the use of short-term population statistics provided by Rosstat in demographic analysis. Methodological conclusions are illustrated by data for the first half of 2015. Following the statement that current data is basically a set of data on the number of vital events registered by civil registrar offices during a calendar month, the authors believe that current information can not be analyzed without proper understanding of its nature and qualities, their comparison with final data on demographic processes in longer term retrospective. However, even when all these conditions are complied with, short-term data can be used merely for establishing preliminary hypotheses and tentative conclusions.
The authors elaborate on why reliable diagnostics of problems relating to population replacement and public health can not be based upon current data. Specifically, comparison of the number of vital events for the two spaced-apart by one calendar year periods can not be considered as a reliable tool for monitoring demographic dynamics.
In the article authors use the vital birh and death registration data on 10 regions exctracted from the Rosstat database to evaluate an input of international migrant into Russian fertility and mortality levels.
Russia’s declining birth rate is linked to a delay in a family’s decision to have children and to uncertainty about the place of children in a couple’s relationship. Despite the rise of individualism and the importance of career and self-realization, however, the family retains a very important place in Russian society.
Regional variation of all features of mortality is quite significant. Being noted for many decades The North-Ost gradient of increased mortality rate continues its trend. In a time despite essential regional variation of mortality the difference in the orientation of its dynamic is not significant at all. An important condition for development of measures to ensure a decrease of mortality rate is information on social and demographic factors.
The monograph is devoted to the problems arising in the analysis of demographic processes, the calculation of net rates and assessment of reserves in the major life insurance contract. The results of studies involving various related parties of the analyzed issues. For example, given a detailed comparative analysis of pre- and disadvantages of organization of the insurance market in Russia and abroad. With used - vaniem various techniques built a ranking of countries in terms of development of the market under study.
The basis of actuarial calculations in the basic life insurance contracts are demo graphic processes: in particular, information about the mortality rate. The foundation for the construction of a net rates and valuation reserves in the life insurance contract is the data of mortality tables, which are based, in turn, is an indicator of how Vero die before reaching next age interval. In this regard, the authors present the theoretical aspects of the construction of the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts. The paper discusses methods of constructing mortality tables , raised the problem of statistical analysis of demographic processes in actuarial calculations, an overview of the basic formulas used to derive the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts.
The authors of the classification of the Russian Federation in terms of economic and demographic character. Some representatives of the obtained clusters The results of the study of the dynamics of demographic processes. It analyzes the main trends in life expectancy at age and sex and the regional context.
Of course, the authors have paid special attention to the analysis of the impact of demographic, financial factors on change of the tariff policy of life insurance contracts, as well as the impact on the rate and size of the allowance conditions of the contract. The research data for the city of Moscow as a financial and information center of Russia, which significantly affects the development of the insurance market as a whole (not only in the life insurance sector).
The results of these studies may be interested in a wide range of professionals in the field of economics, actuarial calculations in life insurance analysts.
This chapter discusses the features of the development of the Russian population and the results of population projections to 2025
After a long decline, life expectancy in Russia substantially increased in 2004-2010; this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. This study is the first analysis of this positive trend.
We seek to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained in 2004-10 and the remaining gap between Russia and Western countries, to assess to what extent these recent trends represent a new development relative to previous mortality fluctuations, and to identify possible explanations for the improvement.
We present an analysis of trends in life expectancy, and in age- and cause-specific mortality in Russia and selected countries in Eastern and Western Europe. We use decomposition techniques to examine the life expectancy rise in 2004-2010 and the Russia-UK life expectancy gap in 2010.
Like the previous mortality fluctuations that have occurred in Russia since the mid-1980s, the increase in life expectancy was driven by deaths at ages 15 to 60 from alcohol-related causes. Uniquely in the recent period, there were also improvements at older ages, especially in cerebrovascular disease mortality among women. In addition, there were reductions in deaths from avoidable causes, such as from tuberculosis and diabetes. The life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains large, and is mostly attributable to deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions, and violence.
The decrease in alcohol-related mortality may be attributable to measures taken in 2006 to control the production and sale of ethanol. The lower number of cerebrovascular-related deaths may reflect advancements in blood pressure control. The reduction in the number of deaths from tuberculosis and diabetes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. Although the decline in mortality since 2004 has been substantial, the question of whether it can be sustained remains open.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.