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Article

Моделирование организованных сбережений населения России: макроподход, учёт кредита

Ершов Э. Б., Кадрева О. Н.

Consumption behavior of Russian households as macroeconomic agent is changing and converging with   behavior of populations of developed countries. This agent finances the purchase of goods and services by current income, savings and loan. Repayments of loans, which are generally used to acquire durable goods and services, are distended in time. Consequently, there are factors including loan conditions that influence the formation of households' organized savings. The main idea of this paper is to model savings depending from loans apart from classical macroeconomic research papers in which total income is the most important factor which affects savings. Available statistical data was structured and transformed into necessary format. Three models of Russian households' consumption behavior were constructed for 2004-2014 years. In this work the following methods were used: Engle-Granger methodology for error correction model (ECM), Johansson’s procedure for vector error correction model (VECM), fixed point method for estimation of structural system of equations for savings and loans. Models include the following exogenous and endogenous variables: expenditures, savings, received loans, monetary income, CPI, lending / deposit interest rates. The results demonstrate the existence of positive short-run and negative long-run interconnection between households’ savings and loans; these results are in accordance with real data. Models obtained in this paper can be used in short-run forecasting of Russian households’ savings. They might be also useful while accessing the effect of loan conditions on saving behavior of households.