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Article

Влияние углеводородных энергоресурсов на динамику мирового экономического развития в XX веке

In this paper we study the impact of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) on global growth. Moreover, we consider only the fundamental factors - the cost of production, depletion and substitution of fossil hydrocarbon energy resources.

It was obtained approximate analytical formulas describing the rental fee and the cost of production and the degree of depletion in two stages: the first (1820-1950),  when production costs were negligible in comparison with the rent, and the second - after 2000,  when on the contrary, the costs of energy production prevail and converted  into the category of limited exhaustible natural resources (ENR ).

On the base of  Dubovsky production function, considering the influence of ENR, was  obtained projections of the impact of hydrocarbon energy resources on  world economic development in the XXI century. Also was calculated the dynamics of changes the value of hydrocarbon resources in GDP. It is shown that the share of expenditure on the hydrocarbon energy in GDP due to fundamental factors do not exceed the allowable 5% of GDP for the whole XXI century.