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Article

Риски структурных изменений в отрасли и их последствия.

The structure of banking industry is highly connected with risks of defaults (Acemoglu, Ozdaglar, Tahbaz-Salehi (2015)). Thus, unexpected and abrupt changes of distributions of banking assets, credits as well as deposits can be good predictors for crisis events in the banking industry. This paper considers the structure of Russian banking industry. The industry structure has not been changed significantly for the past 10 years despite the three crisis periods. In addition, small banks have not got into the “poverty trap”. Therefore, they can potentially move to a class of medium banks. But concentration of banks in terms of proportions of assets has increased, which could lead to higher instability of the banking system in future.