Dynamics of Political Violence examines how violence emerges and develops from episodes of contentious politics. By considering a wide range of empirical cases, such as anarchist movements, ethno-nationalist and left-wing militancy in Europe, contemporary Islamist violence, and insurgencies in South Africa and Latin America, this pathbreaking volume of research identifies the forces that shape radicalization and violent escalation. It also contributes to the process-and-mechanism-based models of contentious politics that have been developing over the past decade in both sociology and political science. Chapters of original research emphasize how the processes of radicalization and violence are open-ended, interactive, and context dependent. They offer detailed empirical accounts as well as comprehensive and systematic analyses of the dynamics leading to violent episodes. Specifically, the chapters converge around four dynamic processes that are shown to be especially germane to radicalization and violence: dynamics of movement-state interaction; dynamics of intra-movement competition; dynamics of meaning formation and transformation; and dynamics of diffusion.
The professionalisation of the field of international higher education has, among other things, amplified the need for specific skills at the international office. Even the definition and location of the international office now vary from one university to the next. Among all these changes, who is the international officer of today? As the diversity of opinions, experiences and case studies in this issue illustrate, the answer to this question is anything but straight forward.
In all three countries, inflation will remain at a low level both this year and in 2015. The disinflation environment, however, may exacerbate problems in the fiscal sphere, especially on the back of sluggish economic performance. This will be important for Croatia and Serbia, where budget expenditures (and hence deficits) will increase this year. Slovenia, on the other hand, is demonstrating stronger fiscal discipline.
>Poland. The Polish economy is growing like a DM economy, while Bulgaria is still searching for a new growth model. Unlike many other countries, Poland was able to avoid recession in 2008-09, and it continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, albeit the threat of deflation exists. Polish economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, supported by a strong performance in construction. Consistent and strong macroeconomic policy kept the country's debt/GDP ratios at bay during the crisis, and has contributed to steady deleveraging in recent years. > Bulgaria. Bulgaria's economic growth remains slow, and after a sharp correction in 2009 the economy saw little restructuring in recent years. There has been deflation since mid-2013, but economic growth is set to accelerate this year to around 1.5%, which could offset the negative impact of deflation on the budget. The country's industrial output improved in 2013-14, but domestic demand has weakened in recent months. > Latvia. Latvia's economic growth still remains strong but may decelerate this year as a side effect of instability in the region and mounting complications in relations between Russia and the EU. Heavily indebted Latvia tightened its macroeconomic policy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and remains committed to maintaining macro stability, having joined the Eurozone. Deflation cannot be ruled out as a result.
Increasing volatility on financial markets, uncertainty about Greece's debt restructuring and economic slowdown, and currency depreciation in the CIS region have put growth prospects in Poland and Latvia at risk. However, Poland has more flexibility to respond to these challenges, as it has an independent monetary policy and weaker links with the CIS.
This book contains a unique collection of studies on key economic and social policy challenges faced by countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region in a short- and long-term perspective. Prepared within the EU funded FP7 project on „Prospective Analysis for the Mediterranean Region (MEDPRO)” conducted in 2010-2013 it takes account on recent political developments in the region (Arab Spring) and their potential consequences. It covers a broad spectrum of topics such as factors of economic growth, macroeconomic and fiscal stability, trade and investment, Euro-Mediterranean and intra-regional economic integration, private sector development and privatizations, infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, financial sector development, poverty and inequality, education, labor market and gender issues.
Книга дает масштабную панораму экономических изменений, начиная со второй половины 18 века. Монография посвящена анализу долго- средне- и краткосрочных глобальных циклов процветания, рецессии и депрессии. Используя концепцию кондратьевских экономических циклов, авторы рассматривают их вкупе с политическими циклами, что позволяет прояснить динамику отношений между глобальным центром и мировой периферией, а также нынешние мировые экономические потрясения и их дальнейшие перспективы.
Основное внимание в исследовании уделяется последовательным волнам промышленного, а затем технологического и кибернетического прогресса, которые привели к наступлению нынешней эры глобализации, а также к изменению роли западных держав и бывших второстепенных игроков, что впоследствии приведет к формированию мирового порядка без гегемона.
Кроме того, авторы анализируют то, что они называют Великой конвергенцией, т.е. наблюдающееся с конца 1980-х годов уменьшение разрыва в уровне благосостояния между странами первого и третьего мира, пришедшее на смену Великой дивергенции 1800-х – начала 1970-х годов.
Economic lessons: textbook for teachers
There is a growing consensus that the major European economies will continue to stage a recovery in 2014, which will help smaller countries bounce back. The Bulgarian government has approved a budget for 2014 that envisages GDP growth of 1.8%. This number is above the 0.5% y-o-y reported for 9m13 and 0.8% seen in 3Q13, but is still relatively unimpressive for a country with relatively low GDP per capita (around $7,000 in 2012). Moreover, achieving this level of growth is not a foregone conclusion, as it will depend on the economic situation in Germany and Bulgaria's other major trade partners, particularly as the government expects growth to be driven by exports and improvements in the tourism sector
Despite the seemingly improving economic situation in Germany, a major trade partner of East European countries, economic trends in Slovenia, Hungary, Romania and Croatia have not changed much in recent months apart from some signs of a slightly deeper contraction in Slovenia and a bit of a stronger performance in Hungary. The formerly strong links between Germany and these countries' growth rates are gradually becoming weaker, pointing to a sort of "decoupling" between the core and peripheral European countries amid slowly changing foreign trade flows. German exporters are no longer benefiting from credit expansion in Eastern Europe and are increasing trade with faster-growing Asian economies, while growing trade with non-EU countries helped ease economic difficulties and/or supported growth in some East European countries (which have been able to expand trade with non-EU countries). Domestic demand remains subdued in most countries.
> Georgia. Georgia's $16 bln economy saw strong annual growth in 2010-12 of around 6-7%, but in 2013 growth slowed to 3.2%, which is still good but not enough for an economy with a GDP per capita of around $3,600. Indeed, over the year, Georgia - which depends heavily on capital inflows - failed to utilize its competitive advantage of lower unit labor costs than in other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Bulgaria. > Turkey. The Turkish economy performed well in 1H14 as industrial output rose 3.8% y-o-y (down from 5.3% y-o-y in 5m14). GDP climbed 4.3% y-o-y in 1Q14, and we estimate 2Q14 to show GDP growth just below 4.0%. We expect 3.7% for 2014 as a whole, which is a bit stronger than we expected early in the year. > Bulgaria. Similar to some other smaller economies in the region, Bulgaria benefited from a recovery in the Eurozone that was characterized by ECB President Mario Draghi on August 7 as "moderate and uneven." Bulgarian GDP picked up to around 1.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (1.2% in 1Q14 and 1.6% in 2Q14). Given that Bulgaria's currency is pegged to the euro, the country was unable to extract benefits from this recovery to the same extent as some other countries, such as Turkey, Hungary or Romania, whose monetary policy and exchange rates are more independent. In 2H14, Bulgaria will face additional pressure from potentially slower growth in the EU as policy makers in the West and Russia continue experiments with sanctions.
Hungary, Romania and Turkey, which previously had much in common (including huge external imbalances), now seem to be following different paths. Hungary was able to orchestrate a fast but painful transition to a positive current account (and thus stabilized its external debt/GDP ratio), Romania's current account deficit has decreased, although the balance remains negative, and Turkey is still struggling to finance its external deficit of over 7% of GDP.