The strengthening of land rights has been proposed as a policy to reduce financial market frictions and promote private investment in low- and middle-income countries. But assessments of these potential effects have proven inconclusive. One reason may be that research has focused on actors that face difficulties accessing credit for reasons other than the security of land tenure. We explore the effect of greater tenure security in a setting in which non-land-related financial market frictions are apt to be mild—that is, among large urban industrial enterprises. Exploiting policy variation across Russian regions and firm-level survey data, we show that private land rights facilitate credit access and promote investment.
The world economy relies on access to industrial metals, oil and gas for maintaining its critical industrial infrastructure. Although demand is likely to remain high, the most accessible deposits have been depleted. Future capacity growth will be facilitated through further technological developments. Russia as a leading producer is paying great attention to strengthening its competitive edge in global markets. This paper reports on a large-scale technology foresight study of the Russian extractive sector (including oil and gas), which combined expert-based foresight activities with statistical analyses and text-mining techniques based on artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. The presented methodology helped to link the technologies to dominant discussions (e.g. climate change vs rural development) and to flag key trends. Furthermore, quantitative estimates can be identified quickly. The study’s methodology should function as an example for similar studies to support policy planning and investment decisions based on text-mining techniques.
Изучается модель Кругмана Ядро-Периферия в общем случае с несимметричными регионами, для которого получена полная характеризация краткосрочных и долгосрочных равновесий. В предположении об отсутствии мобильности труда дается описание поведения номинальной и реальной заработных плат. Кроме того, показано, что относительные номинальные и реальные заработные платы могут как возрастать, так и убывать с ростом населения соответствующего региона. В предположении о мобильности труда дается исчерпывающее описание возможных схем эволюционирования экономики в зависимости от степени свободы торговли. Показано, что в случае значительной асимметрии в распределении аграрного населения между регионами, все мобильные работники с неизбежгностью концентрируются в регионе с большей долей аграрного населения.
This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios. The methodology is based on the disaggregated gravity equation, which is applied to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member countries. In particular, the paper measures the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement from the standpoint of Ukraine - a country that has been lost in transition. This angle allows estimating the costs of non-integration that occurred due to trade and investment diversion, and forgone opportunity to carry out structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. According to the results, the EU accession would have had a positive effect on total export volumes and would have changed the composition of Ukrainian exports by almost doubling exports of manufactured goods by 2007. The costs of non-integration accumulate towards the end of the investigated period. Projecting the results into the future clearly indicates that the benefits of the EU accession for Ukraine would have been unambiguously positive and would overweight benefits of the CIS integration.