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Найдено 46 публикаций
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Статья
Korotayev A., Bilyuga S., Белалов И. Ш. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. Vol. 128. P. 304-310.

Our review of some modern trends in the development of energy technologies suggests that the scenario of a significant reduction of the global oil demand can be regarded as quite probable. Such a scenario implies a rather significant decline of oil prices. The aim of this article is to estimate the sociopolitical destabilization risks that such a decline could produce with respect to oil exporting economies. Our analysis of the relationship between changes in oil prices and political crises in these economies shows a large destabilizing effect for price declines in the respective countries. The effect is highly non-linear, showing a power-law type relationship: oil price changes in the range higher than $60 per barrel only exert very slight influence on sociopolitical instability, but if prices fall below this level, each further decrease by $10 leads to a greater increase in the risks of crises. These risks grow particularly sharply at a prolonged oil price collapse below $40 per barrel, and become especially high at a prolonged oil price collapse below $35 per barrel. The analysis also reveals a fairly short-term lag structure: a strong steady drop in oil prices immediately leads to a marked increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabili- zation in oil-exporting countries, and this risk reaches critical highs within three years. Thus, the possible substantial decline of the global oil demand as a result of the development of the energy technologies reviewed in the first section of the present article could lead to a very substantial increase in the sociopolitical destabi- lization risks within the oil exporting economies. This suggests that the governments, civil societies, and business communities of the respective countries should amplify their effort aimed at the diversification of their economies and the reduction of their dependence on the oil exports.

Добавлено: 12 октября 2017
Статья
Kratzer J., Meissner D., Roud V. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 119. P. 128-138.

There is a common agreement that innovation is driven by the people that form the heart of any company's innovation activity. Still, people perform innovation in a special institutional environment characterized by rules and regulations that might support or impede innovation. The open innovation paradigm expects companies to engage in external relationships for innovation; however companies often neglect the actual internal openness of employees, which is an absolute must before partnering with external partners. The article finds that company innovation culture comes in five main forms: closed innovation (driven by internal capabilities); doing, using, interacting (ad hoc processes, no link to knowledge providers); outsourcing innovation capabilities; extramural innovation, no matching internal culture/procedures and proactive innovation (match of internal and external openness). The empirical analysis shows that the closed innovation behavior is by far the most widespread among Russian companies whereas proactive innovation behavior remains an exception in the overall sample.

Добавлено: 10 мая 2017
Статья
Sarpong D., AbdRazak A., Alexander E. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 123. P. 142-152.

Drawing on the contemporary turn to discursive practices we examine how the organizing practices of industry, university and government facilitate (or impede) developing countries transition to a hybrid triple helix model of innovation. Placing emphasis on the everyday situated practices of institutional agents, their interactions, and collaborative relationships, we identified three domains of practices (advanced research capabilities and external partnerships, the quantification of scientific knowledge and outputs, and collective entrepreneurship) that constitutively facilitate (or impede) partnership and in turn the successful transition to a hybrid triple helix model. Our study also highlights the contextual influence of differential schemata of interpretations on how to organize innovation by the three institutional actors in developing countries.

Добавлено: 22 сентября 2016
Статья
Korotayev A., Goldstone J., Zinkina J. V. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 95. No. June 01. P. 163-169.

The Great Divergence and, to a lesser extent, the Great Convergence phenomena have attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, the existing attempts at explaining these phenomena and their background share two significant drawbacks: first, no model (to the best of our knowledge) has managed to account for both the Great Divergence and the Great Convergence so as to explain the timing of the trend change (around 1970s). Second, most existing models concentrate heavily on the economic forces, frequently neglecting the demographic factor. We offer an approach to overcome these drawbacks, revealing a close coupling between phases of global demographic transition and phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence. As we account for the crucial role of the demographic component in these processes, we show that the timing of the trend change was not coincidental. Our findings suggest that the dynamics of global population growth and the Great Divergence and Great Convergence therefore may be considered so closely coupled as to be two sides of the same coin. On the other hand, they also suggest that the Great Divergence and Great Convergence should be treated as a single process, as two phases of the global modernization. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.

Добавлено: 7 октября 2015
Статья
Sokolov A., Shashnov S. A., Kotsemir M. N. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2019. Vol. 147. P. 221-242.
Добавлено: 13 августа 2019
Статья
Sokolov A., Haegeman K., Marinelli E. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2013. No. 80. P. 386-397.
Добавлено: 31 марта 2014
Статья
Marinelli E., Scapolo F. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2013. Vol. 80. No. 3. P. 386-397.

The FTA community relies on a set of disciplines and methods, which try to better understand and shape the future from different methodological perspectives. Whilst the community has grown since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue and exchange between those applying quantitative and those applying qualitative methods. The FTA events have, since the beginning, provided an avenue to debate methodological aspects and this paper summarises and furthers the discussion developed during the 2011 edition, building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong. In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration. It shows how significant progress has been made for simpler forms of combinations but not for more sophisticated (and perhaps more promising) ones. Following that, it suggests that an epistemological divide, common to the social sciences as a whole, combined with cultural differences and misconceptions within the FTA community are amongst the factors undermining further methodological integration. The paper concludes by suggesting some steps, combining research and practice, to overcome such barriers.

Добавлено: 2 января 2013
Статья
Ivanova I., Leydesdorff L. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2014. Vol. 86. P. 143-156.
Добавлено: 27 января 2016
Статья
Carayannis E., Grebeniuk A., Meissner D. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 110. P. 109-116.

Roadmapping is a broadly applied management instrument for developing and implementing company technology and innovation strategies. During the last years this national science, technology and innovation (STI) policy makers have become aware of the potential roadmapping offers for strategic technology and innovation management and begun applying it in the context of STI policy and priority setting in this context especially. Still reality shows that roadmapping for STI policy purposes is by far more complex than company technology and innovation roadmapping.

The article therefore develops a structured, integrated and flexible approach to roadmapping for STI policy which we name “Smart Roadmapping for STI Policy”, taking into account the complexity of STI policy as well as the need for and implications of a Targeted Open Innovation approach to STI policy and the resulting requirements to roadmaps. The proposed approach is designed to allow integration in the broader policy decision making and different level STI strategy implementation.

Добавлено: 4 мая 2016
Статья
Linton J. D. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 100. P. 39-43.

Technologists and non-technologists have different perspectives that complicate their understanding of innovation. The taste and smell of Scotch Whisky is offered as a sensual experience (smell and/or taste) to assist people in gaining an understanding and appreciation of howprocess innovation leads to and is intertwined with product innovation for foods, chemical and engineered materials. The contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how to enhance learning and understanding about innovation through a straightforward exercise in experiential learning.

Добавлено: 21 октября 2015
Статья
Akaev A., Korotayev A., Issaev L. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 116. P. 316-321.
Добавлено: 27 февраля 2017
Статья
Botchie D., Sarpong D., Bi J. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016.

The Northern economies have been the main sources of technologies for the global garment manufacturing industry. Over the past decade, China has become an important alternative source of these technologies offering a range of technological choices for small scale and dispersed production of cheap consumer goods, particularly in the developing world. Preceding a national foresight exercise aimed at enhancing the capabilities of small-scale garment producers in Uganda, we examine the potential ‘inclusiveness’ of garment sewing machines imported from the Northern economies and China, and their individual potential to enhance the capabilities of poor garment producers, particularly, women and rural dwellers. Data for our study included a survey and semi-structured interviews with 147 garment firms and other key informants. Compared to the Chinese sewing machines, we found that the Northern machines have high acquisition cost, relies on scale and advanced infrastructure, and tend to exclude poor rural producers (often women). The transfer of Chinese technologies to Uganda, we also found is much easier, have larger spread effects, leading to smaller gaps in technological know-how between China and Uganda because of the context in which Chinese technological innovations are induced. We conclude with some implication of our study to theory and policy.

Добавлено: 1 июля 2016
Статья
Vishnevskiy K., Karasev O., Meissner D. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. No. 119. P. 194-204.
Добавлено: 3 октября 2016
Статья
Gokhberg L., Sokolov A. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. June. No. 119. P. 256-267.

The paper aims to analyse the evolution of forward-looking activities in Russia vis-à-vis science, technology and innovation policy challenges and its development over the last century, with a particular focus on the period of transition to a market economy.With the development of more complex and elaborate policy instruments, demand for a better grounded long-termvision of social and economic trends has been growing both among policy makers and the S&T community. The study illustrates the emergence of technology foresight in Russia and its evolution along relevant stages of economic development, from an information source for S&T and innovation policy towards a fully-fledged anticipatory policy instrument.

Добавлено: 18 июля 2016
Статья
Miles I. D., Meissner D., Vonortas N. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 119. P. 211-218.

Technology Foresight (TF) became an increasingly popular approach for science, technology and innovation (STI) policymakers from the mid-1990s on. Achieving prominence in Japan and Western Europe, it attracted the attention of researchers and policy analysts in many parts of the world in subsequent decades. TF is often seen as a set of tools for informing decisions about STI priorities within established innovation systems. These priorities have necessarily changed as scientific knowledge, technological opportunities, and social demands have evolved. But so too have the ways in which innovation processes operate, and understandings of the roles that STI policies can play. Accordingly TF has also been applied to inform efforts to restructure innovation systems - and, indeed, it was often seen as also providing tools to assist in such efforts. The need for such restructuring has been particularly acute in countries undergoing massive transitions. These include transitions from centrally planned to market economies, from non-industrial to newly industrialized countries, and from being imitation-oriented to becoming innovation pioneers. Correspondingly, considerable effort has been put into TF in many such countries. But much of this TF effort has been largely invisible, or at best poorly documented. TF may itself require redesign, taking different forms in various contexts, and as experience with the tools has accumulated. This might involve different patterns of emphasis of, and ways of articulating: the methods that are employed; the stakeholders engaged; the linkages with STI policymaking; and so on. Informed by the contents of this Special Issue, this essay considers the issues arising from this diffusion and evolution of practice, outlining the main capabilities required to mount successful TF exercises in different contexts.

Добавлено: 26 апреля 2017
Статья
Sokolova A. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 101. P. 216-225.
Добавлено: 4 декабря 2015
Статья
Bresciani S., Ferraris A., Del Giudice F. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. Vol. 136. P. 331-338.

In the last decade, the Internet of Things (IoT) has affected the approach of organizations to innovation and how they create and capture value in everyday business activities. This is compounded in the so-called Smart Cities, where the objective of the IoT is to exploit information and communication technologies (ICTs) to support added-value services for citizens, giving companies more opportunities to innovate through the use of the latest technologies. In this context, multinational enterprises (MNEs) are building alliances, starting several projects with public and private city stakeholders aimed at exploring new technologies for cities but also at exploiting new IoT-based devices and services in order to profit from them. This implies that companies need to manage and integrate different types of knowledge to efficiently and effectively support the simultaneous pressure of exploration and exploitation, at a project portfolio level. Using structural equations modeling with data collected from 43 IoT smart city project alliances in Italy, this paper tests and finds evidence that MNEs need to develop knowledge management (KM) capabilities combined with ICT capabilities if they want to obtain greater ambidexterity performance at the project portfolio level. More specifically, we highlight that KM capabilities enhance alliance ambidexterity indirectly through firms' ICT capabilities, suggesting that MNE managers should design KM tools and develop new ICT skills. Implications for academics, managers and future lines of research are proposed.

Добавлено: 10 мая 2017
Статья
Scuotto V., Del Giudice F., Peruta M. et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 102. P. 184-194.

Despite rigorous empirical research exploring the changes in innovation dynamics triggered by Social Media Networks (SMNs), the benefits coming from the use of these digital platforms for knowledge search in innovative activities for small to medium enterprises (SMEs) are still unexplored. Customers become the new trailblazers. Thus, by adopting a customer led innovation perspective, this paper seeks to measure the effect on return on investment (ROI) of the use of SMNs as external drivers for supporting internal innovation search processes. On the basis of the extant literature on information system and social network analysis, the research describes and evaluates the multidimensional activities interwoven into the open innovation process, driven by integrating the five constructs of structural dimension, relational behaviour, cognitive dimension, knowledge transfer, and legitimization into our hypothesised conceptual model.Empirical research was conducted via the Classification Regression Tree (CART) on a sample of 2548 SMEs belonging to the fashion industry and based in Italy and in the United Kingdom. This study is of importance to academics and practitioners due to the increasing significance taken on by the adoption of social media networks in the fashion industry to improve innovation search. Recommendations are made to fashion managers and social media experts to support the planning and development of new products and services. New contributions are offered to the innovation and knowledge management literature. In addition, theoretical implications and avenues for future research are also considered.

Добавлено: 10 мая 2017
Статья
Horta H., Yudkevich M. M. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. No. 113, Part B. P. 363-372.
Добавлено: 30 октября 2016
Статья
Gershman M., Bredikhin S. V., Vishnevskiy K. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2016. Vol. 110. P. 187-195.

In recent decades, the attention of researchers and policymakers has turned to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), in particular the role they play in science, technology and innovation and the methods they use to implement innovation strategies. In this paper, we look at Russian state-owned companies and their development plans, as well as the management tools they employ to forecast and prioritize technologies. Although most Russian SOEs rarely implement corporate foresight and technology roadmapping, certain successful cases are presented and discussed in the paper. Based on these case studies, we suggest a common structure of a technology roadmap that is suitable for SOEs.

Добавлено: 23 октября 2015
Статья
Roud V. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. Vol. 133. P. 238-253.
Добавлено: 11 мая 2018