?
The Identification Of Weak Signals And Wild Cards In Foresight Methodology: Stages And Methods
Высшая школа экономики
,
2015.
No. 46.
Ponomareva Y., Sokolova A.
This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were also provided. The key groups of methods were formed including scanning and monitoring; data analysis; modelling, clustering, interpretation; expert procedures. The stages for identification of WS are proposed. A case study devoted to WS for the analysis of technology development of bioprinting is considered.
Publication based on the results of:
Saritas O., Proskuryakova L. N., Кызынгашева Е. С., / НИУ ВШЭ. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2015. No. 35.
Water resources are crucial for the continuity of life. Humans and living species need fresh water for drinking and sanitation, while industries in most sectors of the economy need water for some part of production processes themselves. Access to fresh water is a grand challenge at the global level, mainly due to increasing water consumption, ...
Added: June 30, 2015
Vishnevskiy K., Milshina Y., Saritas O. et al., / НИУ ВШЭ. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2018. No. 89/STI/2018.
The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well ...
Added: October 25, 2018
Loginova I., Kuzminov I., Khabirova E., Биотехнология 2018 Т. 34 № 5 С. 7-11
The results of the analysis of current and emerging technological shifts in Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) at the global and national levels are presented in the article. The authors discuss the future of the Russian AIC through the prism of unlikely catastrophic events (jokers). The risks of those events should be taken into consideration when forming ...
Added: February 6, 2019
Ражева (Еделькина) А., Карасев О., Клубова М. et al., Нефтепереработка и нефтехимия. Научно-технические достижения и передовой опыт 2014 № 10 С. 17-20
The article describes an approach to long-term forecasting of energy sector development from the point of view of "Grand challenges". The key trends and challenges affecting the development of the Russian energy sector are considered with the purpose to increase the efficiency of sectoral strategic planning. ...
Added: November 28, 2014
Gokhberg L., Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D. et al., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2017. No. WP BRP 76/STI/2017.
The paper discloses a new approach to emerging technologies identification, which strongly relies on capacity of big data analysis, namely text mining augmented by syntactic analysis techniques. It discusses the wide context of the task of identifying emerging technologies in a systemic and timely manner, including its place in the methodology of foresight and future-oriented ...
Added: November 28, 2017
Miles I. D., Foresight and STI Governance 2020 Vol. 14 No. 1 P. 6-27
The tobacco industry worldwide has annual revenues of hundreds of billions of dollars, and annual smoking-associated death rates in the millions. Electronic cigarettes designed as a less harmful alternative to traditional tobacco products allow users to inhale nicotine, without consuming the products of burning tobacco, thus significantly lowering health risks. These and similar innovative solutions ...
Added: June 16, 2020
Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., Khabirova E. et al., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 82.
This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, ...
Added: October 3, 2018
Shashnov S. A., Sokolova A., Foresight 2013 Vol. 15 No. 1 P. 40-53
Purpose: This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection and influence on policy decision making. Design/methodology/approach: The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects' interconnections are explained. Second, each of the studies is characterised from different viewpoints, ...
Added: March 29, 2013
Dekhtyaruk Y., Karyshev I., Korableva M. et al., Foresight and STI Governance 2014 Vol. 8 No. 2 P. 30-45
The shipbuilding sector’s multiple contributions to the social and economic development, as well as to science and technology, of major maritime countries mean that the sector attracts strong interest of entrepreneurs, researchers, and government agencies. Meanwhile the diverse forms of inter-industrial interaction, and specific aspects associated with building high-technology vessels require significant investments. Hence that ...
Added: October 10, 2014
Sokolov A., Chulok A., Mesropyan V. R. et al., Инновации 2013 № 12 С. 34-43
During the last decade new systems of strategic tools of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy has been established in many developed and developing countries. Science and technology (S&T) Foresight in a variety of its forms and implementations is an integral part of these systems. The paper is devoted to the creation of the Russian ...
Added: February 4, 2014
Sokolova A., Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2015 Vol. 101 P. 216-225
As the need for anticipatory strategic decision-making increases at all levels of governance, there
are growing demands for high quality and relevant contributions fromForesight exercises. In this
regard, identification of strong and weak aspects of Foresight design and implementation, a
quality of outputs and a degree of impact as well as learning from this practice is of great
importance. ...
Added: December 4, 2015
Mikhail Bokov, Razheva (Edelkina) A., Klubova M. et al., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2013. No. 22.
The paper assesses the development of the market for navigation services and devices based on the results of a recently held Foresight exercise on monitoring of global technology trends. The future of the market for Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) devices is largely influenced by grand challenges (i.e. lifestyle change, technical safety, urbanization, rural development, ...
Added: November 16, 2013
Haegeman K., Spiesberger M., Veselitskaya N. et al., Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2015 Vol. 101 P. 200-215
This paper addresses the issue of priority setting for research programming in a multi-layered and multilateral context, taking into account the interests of diverse stakeholder groups. It proposes a framework for reducing complexity in a context where societal challenges are multifaceted and largely interconnected, decisions on research programming are highly fragmented and stakeholders are extremely ...
Added: October 24, 2013
Proskuryakova L. N., Saritas O., Sivaev S., Journal of Cleaner Production 2018 Vol. 170 P. 867-879
The grand challenge of accessing fresh water and sanitation is a global concern. The intensity of challenge depends on the geographical location as well as the level of socio-economic development of individual countries. The present paper first reviews the key water-related global trends and examines the global agenda on water issues. Next the focus is ...
Added: September 25, 2017
Vishnevskiy K., Yaroslavtsev A. B., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 198-217
Purpose
The goal of this paper is to apply foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation major trends, most promising products and technologies.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this goal best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section ...
Added: February 25, 2017
Proskuryakova L. N., / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015. No. 44.
The Foresight study presented in this paper is devoted to the sustainable use of water resources in Russia. The authors analyse possible trajectories of development in the three thematic areas (i) sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and in industry; and (iii) new water products and services.
The Foresight methods cover expert interviews ...
Added: August 31, 2015
Fursov K., Miles I. D., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2013. No. 15.
How can we think about the implications of radical technological change for employment and skills? Given the long lead-times required to train professionals, this is an important question, and standard approaches to modeling employment and occupational trends only provide limited parts of the answer. Innovation studies provide us with some further tools for tackling the ...
Added: July 24, 2013
Tatyana Meshkova, Moiseichev E. Y., Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship 2016 Vol. 5 No. 1 P. 1-35
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chain (GVC) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology based on the latest trend to combine the approaches of global value chain and national innovation system research. The authors choose ...
Added: February 17, 2016
Ena O., Mikova N., Saritas O. et al., Scientometrics 2016 Vol. 108 No. 3 P. 1013-1041
This paper introduces a systematic technology trend monitoring (TTM) methodology based on an analysis of bibliometric data. Among the key premises for developing a methodology are: (1) the increasing number of data sources addressing different phases of the STI development, and thus requiring a more holistic and integrated analysis; (2) the need for more customized ...
Added: August 28, 2016
Дехтярук Ю., Карышев И., Кораблева М. et al., Форсайт 2014 Т. 8 № 2 С. 30-45
The shipbuilding sector’s multiple contributions to the social and economic development, as well as to science and technology, of major maritime countries mean that the sector attracts strong interest of entrepreneurs, researchers, and government agencies. Meanwhile the diverse forms of inter-industrial interaction, and specific aspects associated with building high-technology vessels require significant investments. Hence that is a significant challenge in a context ...
Added: July 2, 2014
Karasev O., Vishnevskiy K., Veselitskaya N., Труды МАИ 2012 № 53 С. 1-16
Article touches upon with a set of national and foreign Foresight projects devoted to future development of aviation industry including S&T Foresight until 2025, launched by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University “Higher School of Economics” (ISSEK HSE). Special attention focuses on Roadmap “Use of nanotechnologies in aviation industry”. ...
Added: September 19, 2012
Bredikhin S. V., Futures 2020 Vol. 124 P. 1-12
We set out to establish the place of Weak Signals at the conceptual intersection between the fields of futures and complexity studies as a qualitative counterpart to the so-called Early Warning Signals (of regime shift). After briefly presenting the scope of the Weak Signal concept and associated problems with positioning such a controversial construct against ...
Added: September 8, 2020
Kuzminov I., Loginova I., Khabirova E., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 88.
This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in ...
Added: October 3, 2018
Mikova N., / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 65/STI/2016.
This paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach to understanding the future perspectives of climate change. First, it analyzes the possibilities of using the media as an information source for anticipating trends and challenges in this area through exploring the topics that have been actively discussed in the news in the recent 5 years. Second, qualitative and ...
Added: October 12, 2016