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The integrated approach for Foresight evaluation: the Russian case
Высшая школа экономики
,
2013.
No. 20.
As the impact of strategic decision-making at the corporate, sectoral and national levels increases, there are growing demands for high quality and solid Foresight outputs. In this regard, a timely detection and elimination of problems in Foresight projects is of great importance. A thorough evaluation of criteria and methods used in Foresight analysis would permit the improved effectiveness of Foresight activities. The results could be set against the aims to decide on the feasibility of projects and identify ways to improve them. Despite great interest in Foresight evaluation demonstrated by stakeholders at various levels, the general principles for conducting it have not yet been formulated, which hinders its development and the diffusion of successful expertise. The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated approach for the evaluation of Foresight projects, including their classification, basic criteria to evaluate project realisation, results and impact and a SWOT analysis. The proposed methodology was tested on Russian National Foresight 2030 and the results are described and analysed. Further ways of developing this approach are suggested.
Publication based on the results of:
Sokolova A., Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2015 Vol. 101 P. 216-225
As the need for anticipatory strategic decision-making increases at all levels of governance, there
are growing demands for high quality and relevant contributions fromForesight exercises. In this
regard, identification of strong and weak aspects of Foresight design and implementation, a
quality of outputs and a degree of impact as well as learning from this practice is of great
importance. ...
Added: December 4, 2015
Proskuryakova L. N., / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015. No. 44.
The Foresight study presented in this paper is devoted to the sustainable use of water resources in Russia. The authors analyse possible trajectories of development in the three thematic areas (i) sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and in industry; and (iii) new water products and services.
The Foresight methods cover expert interviews ...
Added: August 31, 2015
Gokhberg L., Sokolov A., Chulok A., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 441-456
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology (S&T) development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised as ...
Added: October 18, 2017
Makarova E. A., Sokolova A., Foresight 2014 Vol. 16 No. 1 P. 75-91
The aim of this paper is to identify ways for improvement of the foresight evaluation framework on the basis of analysis and systematisation of accumulated experience in the field of project management.
The paper is based on a detailed literature review devoted to an evaluation of foresight and traditional projects. The approaches to project evaluation ...
Added: February 24, 2014
Gershman M., Kitova G. A., Journal of the Knowledge Economy 2017 Vol. 8 No. 3 P. 1067-1084
In recent years, evaluation and impact assessments (IA) of research and innovation (R&I) policies have become of interest both to scholars and policy makers. This paper examines public programmes and regulations aimed at stimulating R&I in Russian universities. For this purpose, 299 universities were surveyed in 2013–2014 to reveal their demand for relevant policies and ...
Added: August 25, 2016
Vishnevskiy K., Yaroslavtsev A. B., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 198-217
Purpose
The goal of this paper is to apply foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation major trends, most promising products and technologies.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this goal best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section ...
Added: February 25, 2017
Shashnov S. A., Sokolova A., Foresight 2013 Vol. 15 No. 1 P. 40-53
Purpose: This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection and influence on policy decision making. Design/methodology/approach: The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects' interconnections are explained. Second, each of the studies is characterised from different viewpoints, ...
Added: March 29, 2013
Saritas O., Proskuryakova L. N., Sivaev S., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2015. No. 42.
The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. ...
Added: July 24, 2015
Gokhberg L., Kuzminov I., Chulok A. et al., International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 2017 Vol. 15 No. 4 P. 457-466
This paper reports on the result of a major foresight exercise commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation on the prospective developments of the agriculture and food industry up to the year 2030. The exercise identified economic, technological, social and ecological trends that will greatly influence both supply and demand in the ...
Added: June 15, 2017
Miles I. D., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 437-440
The papers in this special issue of Foresight represent the most detailed accounts to appear in the English language, to date, of the Foresight and related futures analyses that have been undertaken in contemporary Russia. The Russian Federation has set out to undertake a remarkable range of such activities in the past decade, and both the approaches ...
Added: December 27, 2017
Likhacheva A., Makarov I. A., Pestich A., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2018 Т. 13 № 3 С. 97-112
The paper focuses on the development trends of the transport infrastructure of Eurasia in the context of the economic and political integration of the countries at this continent. Leading states of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) made proposals on large-scale infrastructure projects in the Eurasian space after financial crisis 2008–2009. Russia is extremely interested in integrating ...
Added: November 22, 2018
Lanham : Lexington Books, 2015
This book pulls together experts in the fields of economics and Russian culture, all participants in the Samuel P. Huntington Memorial Symposium on Culture, Cultural Change and Economic Development, a follow-up to the 1999 Cultural Values and Human Progress Symposium at Harvard University. As the sequel to the 2001 volume Culture Matters, it discusses modernization, ...
Added: April 30, 2015
Ермоленко Г. В., Proskuryakova L. N., Ермоленко Б. В., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 528-540
Purpose – The purpose of the study is to show the technical potentials of a variety of renewable energy sources in Russia, as well as benefits from their deployment including hydrocarbon savings, emission reduction and lower energy cost. Design/methodology/approach – In the paper, Russia is compared with other countries in terms of actual installed capacity ...
Added: September 25, 2017
Abankina T., International Journal of Culture,Tourism and Hospitality Research 2013 Vol. 7 No. 1 P. 3-10
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce findings of comparative analysis and various models based on cultural heritage resources to foster regional development.
Design/methodology/approach – Comparison of operational schemes, market positions and branding of three successful cultural heritage centers in Germany, Great Britain and Russia demonstrates a variety of regional development models based ...
Added: October 22, 2013
Anna Bykova, Felix Lopez-Iturriaga, Baltic Journal of Management 2018 Vol. 13 No. 1 P. 20-40
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between export activity and firm performance for a positive impact of foreign direct investments. We also analyse two possible causes of the effect: technology transfer and financial support. The theoretical background is rooted in the resource-based approach taking into account multinational companies’ perspective ...
Added: October 15, 2016
Dabrowski M., Russian Journal of Economics 2016 Vol. 2 No. 3 P. 302-326
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors. The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) ...
Added: October 27, 2016
Nesterov A., Государство и право 2011 № 6 С. 87-91
This article reviews debatable questions of the anti-corruption examination, contains the analysis of regulations, providing by Federal Law "On Anti-Corruption Examination of Regulatory Acts and their Drafts", formulates a number of suggestions concerning actualization of anti-corruption examination institute. ...
Added: September 23, 2012
fgh g., Libman A., Post-Soviet Affairs 2015 Vol. 31 No. 4 P. 304-338
Corruption is widespread throughout the former Communist states, and it is particularly severe and entrenched in Russia. Despite the fact that Russia's contemporary corruption has recently become a subject of analysis, there is, however, no study that has addressed the role of the Communist legacy in the development of various aspects of corruption. This paper ...
Added: September 3, 2015
Liudmila Zasimova, Kolosnitsyna M., Post-Soviet Affairs 2018 Vol. 34 No. 6 P. 412-429
This study seeks to discuss the survivability of charitable NGOs in Russia without foreign funding. We use cross-section data from a quantitative household survey conducted in April 2016 to investigate common giving patterns of Russians. Using statistic and regression analysis, we explore causes of donations and individual and social attributes of charitable giving in general ...
Added: October 5, 2018
Chulok A., Slobodianik S., Moiseichev E. Y., Foresight 2017 Vol. 19 No. 5 P. 511-527
Purpose
This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.
Design/methodology/approach
Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on ...
Added: October 3, 2017
Libman A., fgh g., Publius 2014 Vol. 44 No. 2 P. 298-323
A substantial portion of Elinor Ostrom’s work critically examines the interplay between decentralization and efficient governance of commons. Ostrom’s suggestion is to shift from the dichotomous view of decentralization versus centralization to a more complex picture, labeled “polycentric governance.” This article applies this theory and uses a novel data set to test how the allocation ...
Added: October 19, 2015
Нидерле П., Kurakin A. A., Никулин А. М. et al., Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Социология 2019 Т. 19 № 2 С. 261-276
The ‘food regime’ approach was introduced as a historical method of “incorporated
comparison” (P. McMichael). This comparison of the role of agriculture in the world-system made some
scholars overemphasize an excessively unitary and coherent global food regime. The authors recognize
this approach as a historical-comparative analytical tool to understand global trends, but argue that
the Russian and Brazilian agrarian ...
Added: June 24, 2019
Belousova V., Karminsky A. M., Kozyr I., / Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition. Series DP "BOFIT Discussion Papers". 2018. No. 5.
The paper examines how type of ownership affects the profit efficiency of Russian banks. Using bank-quarter data for selected banks in the period 2004–2015, we combine stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) methodology with an intermediary approach to assess profit efficiency. Our key findings show that foreign-owned banks are the most efficient, followed by state-owned banks and ...
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Shulgin A. G., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 103/EC/2015.
Stabilizing monetary policy in small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In a crisis this constraint may not allow Central Bank to cut interest rate because it may cause huge capital flight and subsequent problems. In this paper we investigate whether performed by Central Bank rationing of credit at official rate may ...
Added: October 22, 2015